A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.

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  • Does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation? If so, in which direction? The author finds that, when growth in roads (the largest component of infrastructure) changes, productivity growth changes disproportionately in U.S. industries with more vehicles. That vehicle-intensive industries benefit more from road-building suggests that roads are productive. At the margin, however, road investments do not appear unusually productive. Intuitively, the interstate system was highly productive, but a second one would not be. Road-building thus explains much of the productivity slowdown through a one-time, unrepeatable productivity boost in the 1950s and 1960s.

  • Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

  • Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling foraggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns,and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use andnonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of severalyears, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. Thestandard one-sector real-business-cycle model is not consistent with this evidence.The evidence is consistent, however, with simple sticky-price models, which predictthe results we find: when technology improves, inputs and investment generally fallin the short run, and output itself may also fall. (JEL E22, E32, O33)

Last update from database: 6/12/24, 11:00 PM (AEST)