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Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model.

Resource type
Author/contributor
Title
Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model.
Abstract
This article presents a dynamic, rational expectations equilibrium model of asset prices where the drift of fundamentals (dividends) shifts between two unobservable states at random times. I show that in equilibrium, investors' willingness to hedge against changes in their own "uncertainty" on the true state makes stock prices overreact to bad news in good times and underreact to good news in bad times. I then show that this model is better able than conventional models with no regime shifts to explain features of stock returns, including volatility clustering, "leverage effects," excess volatility, and time-varying expected returns.
Publication
Review of Financial Studies
Volume
12
Issue
5
Pages
975-1007
Date
1999
Citation
Veronesi, P. (1999). Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model. Review of Financial Studies, 12, 975–1007.
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