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Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations
Abstract
This paper uses the consumption Euler equation to derive a decomposition of consumption growth into four sources. These four sources are new information, and three sources of predictable consumption growth: intertemporal substitution, changes in the preferences for consumption, and incomplete markets for consumption insurance. Using household-level data, we implement this decomposition for the average growth rate of consumption expenditures on nondurable goods in the United States from 1982 to 1997. The economic importance of precautionary saving rivals that of the real interest rate, but the relative importance of each source of movement in the volatility of consumption is not precisely measured.
Publication
American Economic Review
Volume
95
Issue
4
Pages
1119-1143
Date
2005-09
Citation
Parker, J. A., & Preston, B. (2005). Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations. American Economic Review, 95, 1119–1143.
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