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Selective Default Expectations
Resource type
Authors/contributors
- Accominotti, Olivier (Author)
- Albers, Thilo N H (Author)
- Oosterlinck, Kim (Author)
Title
Selective Default Expectations
Abstract
This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market segmentation. We show that, when secondary debt markets are segmented, a large selective default probability can be priced in bond yield spreads. Selective default risk accounted for one-third of the yield spread of German external bonds over the risk-free rate during the 1930s. Selective default expectations arose from differences in the creditor countries’ economic power over the debtor.
Publication
The Review of Financial Studies
Volume
37
Issue
6
Pages
1979-2015
Date
2024-06-01
Journal Abbr
The Review of Financial Studies
ISSN
0893-9454
Accessed
6/16/24, 9:48 PM
Library Catalog
Silverchair
Citation
Accominotti, O., Albers, T. N. H., & Oosterlinck, K. (2024). Selective Default Expectations. The Review of Financial Studies, 37, 1979–2015.
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