A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.

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Results 3,464 resources

  • The existing literature attributes the recent decay of stock market anomalies to increased arbitrage activities (e.g., Chordia, Subrahmanyam, and Tong, 2014; McLean and Pontiff, 2016; Green, Hand, and Zhang, 2017). In this paper, we present evidence that the apparent demise of several prominent classes of stock market anomalies is better explained by changes in underlying fundamentals. The attenuation of anomalies in the Momentum, Investment, and Profitability categories are accompanied by a reduced difference in fundamental performance between the long- and short-leg portfolios, as measured by the fundamental return from a two-capital investment CAPM. After accounting for the change in fundamental return, the attenuation of Investment and Profitability anomalies decreases to statistically insignificant levels. These results are consistent with the q-theory of investment, which attributes the attenuation of stock returns and fundamental returns of anomalies to the time variation in discount rates implied by fundamentals. We also show that neither academic publication nor proxies for increased arbitrage activities can explain the attenuation of these anomalies.

  • This paper examines the supply chain effects of the most damaging cyberattack in history so far. The attack propagated from the directly hit firms to their customers, causing a four-fold amplification of the initial drop in profits. These losses were larger for affected customers with fewer alternative suppliers. Internal liquidity buffers and increased borrowing, mainly through bank credit lines, helped firms navigate the shock. Nonetheless, the cyberattack led to persistent adjustments to the supply chain network, with affected customers terminating trading relations with directly hit firms and forming new ones with alternative suppliers with a stronger cybersecurity posture.

  • Modern mutual fund families include more than active mutual funds (AMFs). AMFs in families with greater index mutual fund (IMF) presence generate higher category-adjusted gross returns. Performance is positively related to the levels of passive and active fees, suggesting moral hazard. Intrafamily competition from IMFs in the same Morningstar category incentivizes managers to exert effort. Financial resources do not contribute to the performance effect. Cross-trading with IMFs occurs with some positive effect on performance. ETFs have no impact on performance. IMFs reduce flow-performance sensitivity and flow volatility of AMFs in the family. IMFs and ETFs uniquely contribute to expense pressure.

  • This paper uncovers a novel component for exchange rate predictability based on the price difference between sovereign credit default swaps denominated in different currencies. This new forecasting variable – the credit-implied risk premium – captures the expected currency depreciation conditional on a severe but rare credit event. Using data for 16 Eurozone countries, we find that the credit-implied risk premium positively forecasts the dollar-euro exchange rate return at various horizons. Moreover, a currency strategy that exploits the informative content of our predictor generates substantial out-of-sample economic value against the naïve random walk benchmark.

  • We test the conditional consumption-CAPM using asset holders’ consumption and find that the time variation in the prices of asset holders’ consumption risk is procyclical. This puzzling time variation is at odds with the implication of existing consumption-based equilibrium asset pricing models. We show that our finding is a salient feature of the data observed in multiple asset classes (aggregate equity market, equity portfolios, bond portfolios, and commodities portfolios), using different measures of consumption (household survey data and high-frequency retail shopping data) and alternative empirical methodologies.

  • We study the influence from social interactions on equity trading. Using unique data on stock transactions, we exploit the quasi-random assignment of students to classrooms in a financial training program to identify how peer experience affects investor behavior. We find that individuals react more to peer gains than to peer losses. Students enrolled in courses where peers have positive outcomes: (i) are more likely to start trading, (ii) purchase similar stocks as their classmates, and (iii) are disproportionally attracted to stocks with extreme returns. These stocks have low subsequent returns, and new investors reacting to peer gains underperform other investors.

  • Endogenous cycles emerge through the two-way interaction between lending standards and production fundamentals. Lax lending standards in booms lead to low interest rates and high output but the deterioration of future loan quality. Low borrower quality in turn precipitates tight standards: the economy enters a recession with high credit spreads and low output but a gradual improvement in the quality of loans. This eventually triggers a shift back to a boom with lax lending, and the cycle continues. The capitalization of expert investors determines the strength of capital reallocation in recessions. Furthermore, although the constrained efficient economy is often cyclical, it features both a static and a dynamic externality in credit supply, hence differing from the decentralized equilibrium.

  • What drives the puzzle of market reactions to old news? Motivated by theories of correlation neglect, we conduct an experiment on finance professionals and show that even sophisticated investors have difficulty identifying old information that recombines content from multiple sources. We evaluate the market implications of this mechanism using a unique dataset of 17 million news articles from the Bloomberg terminal. Recombination of old information prompts larger price moves and subsequent reversals than direct reprints. This effect persists across news sentiment, ambiguity, and investor attention. Furthermore, while overall reactions to old information decline over time, differential reactions to recombinations increase.

  • We investigate how the dynamics of corporate debt policy affect the pricing of corporate bonds. We find empirically that debt issuance has a significant stochastic component that is imperfectly correlated with shocks to asset value. As a consequence, the volatility of leverage is significantly higher than asset volatility over short horizons. At long horizons, the relation between leverage and asset volatility is reversed due to mean reversion in leverage. We incorporate these stochastic debt dynamics into structural models of credit risk, both standard diffusion models as well as newer models with stochastic volatility and jumps. Including stochastic debt gives more accurate predictions of credit spreads in both the cross-section and the time series.

  • SEC Rule10b5-1 plans are intended to limit the ability of insiders to trade opportunistically. We study insider stock sales by CEOs both under and outside of these plans. While both groups exhibit opportunism, this behavior is more limited in plan sales and non-plan sales in well-governed firms. Furthermore, opportunism in plan sales is greater for transactions representing a larger fraction of the CEO's firm-related wealth. CEOs can circumvent the intent of Rule 10b5-1 by exercising their discretion over financial reporting and real earnings management and appear to benefit from material nonpublic information by selectively cancelling plans or using limit orders.

Last update from database: 5/16/24, 11:00 PM (AEST)

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