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Integrating Factor Models

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Integrating Factor Models
Abstract
This paper develops a comprehensive framework to address uncertainty about the correct factor model. Asset pricing inferences draw on a composite model that integrates over competing factor models weighted by posterior probabilities. Evidence shows that unconditional models record near‐zero probabilities, while postearnings announcement drift, quality‐minus‐junk, and intermediary capital are potent factors in conditional asset pricing. Out‐of‐sample, the integrated model performs well, tilting away from subsequently underperforming factors. Model uncertainty makes equities appear considerably riskier, while model disagreement about expected returns spikes during crash episodes. Disagreement spans all return components involving mispricing, factor loadings, and risk premia.
Publication
The Journal of Finance
Volume
78
Issue
3
Pages
1593-1646
Date
2023
Citation
Avramov, D., Cheng, S., Metzker, L., & Voigt, S. (2023). Integrating Factor Models. The Journal of Finance, 78, 1593–1646.
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