A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
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- Please kindly let me know [mingze.gao@mq.edu.au] in case of any errors.
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Results 33 resources
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Open-end corporate bond mutual funds invest in illiquid assets while providing liquid claims to shareholders. Does such liquidity transformation introduce fragility to the corporate bond market? To address this question, we create a novel bond-level latent fragility measure based on asset illiquidity of mutual funds holding the bond. We find that corporate bonds bearing higher fragility subsequently experience higher return volatility and more outflows-induced mutual fund selling over the period of 2006–2019. Using the COVID-19 crisis as a natural experiment, we find that bonds with higher precrisis fragility experienced more negative returns and larger reversals around March 2020.
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How can fragility be averted in open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds’ net asset values to pass on funds’ trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor-level transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces outflows during market stress. Swing pricing also reduces concavity in the flow-performance relationship and dilution in fund performance.
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We find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals’ revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock (positive change in bond yields), a negative GDP growth revision predicts an expansionary policy news shock (negative change in bond yields). Failing to account for this predictability biases the estimates of monetary policy effects on the economy. First, the Fed’s information effect dissipates as the truly unpredictable policy news shock does not affect professionals’ beliefs about the economy. Second, net policy shock has a more negative impact on actual future GDP than the raw policy shock.
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We propose a new measure of private information in decentralized markets—connections—which exploits the time variation in the number of dealers with whom a client trades in a time period. Using trade‐level data for the U.K. government bond market, we show that clients perform better when having more connections as their trades predict future price movements. Time variation in market‐wide connections also helps explain yield dynamics. Given our novel measure, we present two applications suggesting that (i) dealers pass on information, acquired from their informed clients, to their affiliates, and (ii) informed clients better predict the orderflow intermediated by their dealers.
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Corporate bond prices are slow to respond to default risk and interest rate shocks, as proxied by firm-level stock returns and Treasury returns, respectively. Furthermore, the underreaction is risk-specific: bonds with better credit quality underreact more to default risk, while those with worse quality underreact more to interest rates. The underreactions imply substantial out-of-sample return predictability, and investors appear to be leaving too much money on the table. The results are consistent with behavioral inattention models in which investors endogenously allocate more attention to payoff-relevant (or salient) risks, and they are not explained by traditional trading friction mechanisms.
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We identify fixed-income mutual funds as an important contributor to the unusually high selling pressure in liquid asset markets during the COVID-19 crisis. We show that mutual funds experienced pronounced investor outflows amplified by their liquidity transformation. In meeting redemptions, funds followed a pecking order by first selling their liquid assets, including Treasuries and high-quality corporate bonds, which generated the most concentrated selling pressure in these markets. Overall, the estimated price impact of mutual funds was sizable at a third of the increase in Treasury yields and a quarter of the increase in corporate bond yields during the COVID-19 crisis.
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This paper proposes a theory of excess price fluctuations in over‐the‐counter secondary markets. When heterogeneous assets trade under asymmetric information, a quality effect emerges: high liquidity lowers the quality of the pool of sellers and decreases future liquidity. Cyclical equilibria can arise even without fundamental shocks. In a cycle, investors speculate by bidding up the price of low‐quality assets, anticipating a high resale price at the peak. When this resale effect is strong, cycles disappear and multiple steady states coexist with different levels of liquidity. The model rationalizes empirical patterns for corporate bonds and housing in particular.
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We identify a yield news shock as an innovation that does not move Treasury yields contemporaneously but explains a maximum share of their future variation. Yields do not immediately respond to the news shock as the initial reaction of term premiums and expected short rates offset each other. While the impact on term premiums fades quickly, expected short rates and thus yields decline persistently. As a result, the shock explains a staggering 50% of Treasury yield variation several years out. A positive yield news shock is associated with a coincident sharp increase in stock and bond market volatility, a contemporaneous response of leading economic indicators, and is followed by a persistent decline of real activity and inflation which is accommodated by the Federal Reserve. Identified shocks to realized stock market volatility and business cycle news imply similar impulse responses and together capture the bulk of variation of the yield news shock.
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This paper introduces a dynamic change of measure approach for computing analytical solutions of expected future prices (and therefore, expected returns) of contingent claims over a finite horizon. The new approach constructs hybrid probability measures called equivalent expectation measures (EEMs) that provide the physical expectation of the claim's future price before the horizon date, and serve as pricing measures on or after the horizon date. The EEM theory can be used for empirical investigations of both the cross‐section and the term structure of returns of contingent claims, such as Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, and financial derivatives.
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The debt-to-GDP ratio negatively predicts cumulative nominal consumption growth up to a 10-year horizon, resulting from the ratio’s ability to forecast lower inflation and real growth. Moreover, the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively associated with yield spreads. I rationalize these facts in a model in which positive shocks to government debt cause lower inflation and growth, making bonds attractive assets. Furthermore, because longer-term bonds are less exposed to current debt shock than are shorter-term bonds, they are better hedges, resulting in high yield spreads in high-debt states. The model highlights the importance of fiscal risk in understanding the Treasury bond market.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.