A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.

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Topic

Systematic Default and Return Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Systematic Default and Return Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets
Abstract
We construct a measure of systematic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. Systematic default spikes during recessions, is correlated with macroeconomic indicators, and predicts future realized defaults. More importantly, it predicts future equity and corporate bond index returns both in- and out-of-sample. Finally, we find that the cross-section of average stock returns is related to firm-level exposures to systematic default risk.
Publication
Journal of Financial Economics
Volume
149
Issue
S0304405X23001022
Pages
349-377
Date
2023
Citation
Bao, J., Hou, K., & Zhang, S. (2023). Systematic Default and Return Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 149, 349–377.
Topic
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