A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
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Results 17 resources
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This paper uses a nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model, a conditional linear model, and an unconditional linear model to price international equities, bonds, and forward currency contracts. Unlike linear models, the nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model requires no restrictions on the payoff space, allowing it to price payoffs of options, forward contracts, and other derivative securities. Only the nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model does an adequate job of explaining the time-series behavior of a cross section of international returns.
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The authors examine the reaction of common stock returns to bond rating changes. While recent studies find a significant negative stock response to downgrades, they argue that this reaction should not be expected for all downgrades because some rating changes are anticipated by market participants and downgrades because of an anticipated move to transfer wealth from bondholders to stockholders should be good news for stockholders. The authors find that downgrades associated with deteriorating financial prospects convey new negative information to the capital market but that downgrades due to changes in firms' leverage do not.
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This paper examines the benefits from currency hedging, both for speculative and risk minimization motives, in international bond and equity portfolios. The risk-return performances of globally diversified portfolios are compared with and without forward contracts. Over the period 1974 to 1990, inclusion of forward contracts results in statistically significant improvements in the performance of unconditional portfolios containing bonds. Conditional strategies are also implemented, both in sample and out of sample, and are shown to both significantly improve the risk-return tradeoff of global portfolios and to outperform unconditional hedging strategies.
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The authors argue that arbitrage pricing theories (APT) imply the existence of a low-dimensional nonnegative nonlinear pricing kernel. In contrast to standard constructs of the APT, they do not assume a linear factor structure on the payoffs. This allows the authors to price both primitive and derivative securities. Seminonparametric techniques are used to estimate the pricing kernel and test the theory. Empirical results using size-based portfolio returns and yields on bonds reject the nested capital asset pricing model and linear APT and support the nonlinear APT. Diagnostics show that the nonlinear model is more capable of explaining variations in small firm returns.
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The authors provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis.
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This paper examines the timing of, and reaction to, calls of callable warrants. Three main findings emerge. First, unlike convertible bonds or preferred stock, callable warrants are called almost as soon as possible. Second, there is a negative price reaction of about 3 percent when a call is announced. Finally, at the completion of a call, the stock price rebounds by an average of 7 percent. The total reaction from announcement through completion of the call is a positive excess return of about 4 percent.
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This paper uses a vector autoregressive model to decompose excess stock and ten-year bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and excess stock and bond returns. In monthly postwa r U.S. data, stock and bond returns are driven largely by news about future excess stock returns and inflation, respectively. Real intere st rates have little impact on returns, although they do affect the short-term nominal interest rate and the slope of the term structure. These findings help to explain the low correlation between excess st ock and bond returns.
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The methods of Michael R. Gibbons and Wayne Ferson (1985) are extended, relaxing the assumption that expected returns are linear functions of predetermined instruments. A model of conditional mean-variance spanning generalizes G. Huberman and S. Kandel (1987). The empirical results indicate that more than a single risk premium is needed to model expected stock and bond returns, but the number of common factors in the expected returns is small. However, when size-based common stock portfolios proxy for the risk factors, the authors reject the hypothesis that four of them describe the conditional expected returns of the other assets.
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The ratio of the yields on short-term tax-exempt and taxable bonds exhibits a sawtooth pattern that is consistent with th e impacts of tax deferments from dates on which interest payments are received to dates on which the resulting tax payments are paid. The effect of the tax deferment at turns of calendar years does not diff er appreciably from the effect at the turn of any other tax quarter. Investors with tax payment schedules that differ from that of the investor that is indifferent between investing in taxable and tax-exempt bonds may benefit from tax-related timing strategies for investing in these bonds. Issuers may benefit from tax-related timin g strategies for scheduling interest payments.
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Recent studies using aging analysis have found high rates of default for rated, nonconvertible high-yield bonds. This paper examines the remainder of the market and concludes that rated. and nonrated convertible high-yield bonds had significantly lower defaul t rates. It also provides some evidence that nonrated, nonconvertible securities may have lower default rates. Even after controlling for issue size and coupon rates in a logit model, these differences rema in statistically significant.