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Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics
Abstract
Recent crises have seen large spikes in asset price risk. We propose an explanation for such panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in beliefs about risk. A negative link between the current level and the future risk of an asset price leads to a circular relationship between the stochastic process of asset price risk and the price itself. Self-fulfilling shifts in perceived risk can be coordinated around a pure sunspot or around a macro fundamental. In a risk panic, a macro fundamental can be a focal point that affects both the magnitude of the panic and subsequent shifts in perceived risk.
Publication
American Economic Review
Volume
102
Issue
7
Pages
3674-3700
Date
2012-12
Citation
Bacchetta, P., Tille, C., & van Wincoop, E. (2012). Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics. American Economic Review, 102, 3674–3700.
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