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Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore
Abstract
This paper uses a unique panel dataset of consumer financial transactions to study how consumers respond to an exogenous unanticipated income shock. Consumption rose significantly after the fiscal policy announcement: during the ten subsequent months, for each 1 received, consumers on average spent 0.80. We find a strongannouncement effect – 19 percent of the response occurs during thefirst two-month announcement period via credit cards. Subsequently,consumers switched to debit cards after disbursement before finallyincreasing spending on credit cards in the later months. Consumerswith low liquid assets or with low credit card limit experienced strongerconsumption responses. (JEL D12, D14, E21)
Publication
American Economic Review
Volume
104
Issue
12
Pages
4205-30
Date
2014-12
Citation
Agarwal, S., & Qian, W. (2014). Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore. American Economic Review, 104, 4205–4230.
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