A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
- Topic classification is ongoing.
- Please kindly let me know [mingze.gao@mq.edu.au] in case of any errors.
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Results 16 resources
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Standard representative‐agent models fail to account for the weak correlation between stock returns and measurable fundamentals, such as consumption and output growth. This failing, which underlies virtually all modern asset pricing puzzles, arises because these models load all uncertainty onto the supply side of the economy. We propose a simple theory of asset pricing in which demand shocks play a central role. These shocks give rise to valuation risk that allows the model to account for key asset pricing moments, such as the equity premium, the bond term premium, and the weak correlation between stock returns and fundamentals.
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In many countries, poorly functioning bankruptcy procedures force viable but insolvent firms to restructure out of court, where banks may have a bargaining advantage over other creditors. We model the choice of restructuring process and derive implications for the corporate mix of bank and bond financing. Empirical patterns match the model: inefficient bankruptcy in a country is associated with less bond issuance by risky, but not by safe, borrowers. This pattern holds for both levels of and changes in bankruptcy recovery. Our results establish a link between bankruptcy reform and corporate bond markets, especially high-yield markets.
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In Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) a significant proportion of targets’ equity is owned by financial institutions that simultaneously own targets’ bonds (“dual holders”). Targets with larger equity ownership by dual holders have lower M&A equity premia and larger abnormal bond returns, particularly when dual holders stand to benefit more from appreciation of their bond stakes, e.g., when their bond ownership in the target is large and the target credit rating is non-investment grade. Dual holders are more likely to vote in favor of the merger proposal. Our results suggest the presence of coordination of decisions within dual holding financial conglomerates in M&A targets.
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Share prices generally fall when a firm announces a seasoned equity offering (SEO). A standard explanation is that an SEO communicates negative information to investors. We show that if repeated capital market transactions are possible, this same asymmetry of information between firms and investors implies that some firms also repurchase shares in equilibrium. A subset of these firms directly profit from repurchases, while other firms repurchase in order to improve the terms of a subsequent SEO. The possibility of repurchases reduces both SEOs and investment. Overall, our analysis highlights the importance of analyzing SEOs and repurchases in a unified framework.
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Du, W., & Schreger, J. (2016). Local Currency Sovereign Risk. The Journal of Finance, 71, 1027–1070.
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk‐free rate constructed using cross‐currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign‐currency‐denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross‐country correlations, and lower sensitivity to global risk factors. We discuss several major sources of credit spread differentials, including positively correlated credit and currency risk, selective default, capital controls, and various financial market frictions.
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High expected inflation is known to predict low future real growth. We show that, relative to nondurable goods sectors of the economy, such predictability is significantly more pronounced in durable sectors. Consistent with this macroeconomic evidence, the equity returns of durable goods-producing firms have a larger negative exposure to expected inflation risks. We estimate a two-good recursive utility model that features persistent growth fluctuations and inflation nonneutrality for durable and nondurable consumption. Our model can quantitatively account for the levels and volatilities of bond and equity prices, and correlations of equity returns with bond returns and with expected inflation.
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We assess the yield impact of asset purchases within the European Central Bank׳s (ECB) Securities Markets Programme (SMP) in five euro area sovereign bond markets from 2010–11. In addition to large announcement effects, we find an impact of approximately −3 basis points at the five-year maturity for purchases of 1/1000 of the outstanding debt. Bond yield volatility and tail risk are lower on intervention days for most SMP countries. A dynamic specification points to both transitory and long-run effects. Purchases improved liquidity conditions and reduced default-risk premia, while the signaling of future low interest rates did not play a role.
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This paper introduces a measure that captures the premium in bond prices that is due to the value of creditor control. We estimate the premium as the difference in the bond price and an equivalent synthetic bond without control rights that is constructed using credit default swap (CDS) contracts. We find empirically that this premium increases as firm credit quality decreases and around important credit events such as defaults, bankruptcies, and covenant violations. The increase is greatest for bonds most pivotal to changes in control. Changes in bond and CDS liquidity do not appear to drive increases in the premium.
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We introduce a novel class of term structure models for variance swaps. The multivariate state process is characterized by a quadratic diffusion function. The variance swap curve is quadratic in the state variable and available in closed form, greatly facilitating empirical analysis. Various goodness-of-fit tests show that quadratic models fit variance swaps on the S&P 500 remarkably well, and outperform affine models. We solve a dynamic optimal portfolio problem in variance swaps, index option, stock index and bond. An empirical analysis uncovers robust features of the optimal investment strategy.
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This paper investigates the impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financial constraints using the maturity extension program (MEP). Consistent with bond market segmentation and limits to arbitrage, around the MEP's announcement, stock prices rose for those firms more dependent on longer-term debt. These firms also issued more long-term debt during the MEP and expanded employment and investment. There is also evidence of “reach for yield” behavior, as the demand for riskier corporate debt also increased. Our results suggest that unconventional monetary policy might have relaxed financial constraints for some firms by inducing gap-filling behavior and affecting bond market risk premia.