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The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia
Abstract
Fixing the investment horizon, the returns to currency carry trades decrease as the maturity of the foreign bonds increases. Across developed countries, the local currency term premia, which increase with the maturity of the bonds, offset the currency risk premia. Similarly, in the time-series, the predictability of foreign bond returns in dollars declines with the bonds' maturities. Leading no-arbitrage models in international finance do not match the downward term structure of currency carry trade risk premia. We derive a simple preference-free condition that no-arbitrage models need to reproduce in the absence of carry trade risk premia on long-term bonds.
Publication
American Economic Review
Volume
109
Issue
12
Pages
4142-77
Date
2019-12
Citation
Lustig, H., Stathopoulos, A., & Verdelhan, A. (2019). The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia. American Economic Review, 109, 4142–4177.
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