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Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises
Abstract
Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and to latent factors, reflecting other news in the release. Non-headline news, for which there are no expectations surveys, is unobservable to the econometrician but nonetheless elicits a market response. We estimate the model by the Kalman filter, which efficiently combines OLS and heteroskedasticity-based event study estimators in one step. With the inclusion of a single latent surprise factor, essentially all yield curve variance in event windows are explained by news.
Publication
American Economic Review
Volume
110
Issue
12
Pages
3871-3912
Date
2020-12
Citation
Gürkaynak, R. S., KisacikoÄŸlu, B., & Wright, J. H. (2020). Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises. American Economic Review, 110, 3871–3912.
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