A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
- Topic classification is ongoing.
- Please kindly let me know [mingze.gao@mq.edu.au] in case of any errors.
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Results 36 resources
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We propose a no-arbitrage model of the nominal and real term structures that accommodates the different persistence and volatility of distinct inflation components. Core, food, and energy inflation combine into a single total inflation measure that ties nominal and real risk-free bond prices together. The model successfully extracts market participants’ expectations of future inflation from nominal yields and inflation data. Estimation uncovers a factor structure common to core inflation and interest rates and downplays the pass-through effect of short-lived food and energy shocks on inflation and interest rates. Model forecasts systematically outperform survey forecasts and other benchmarks.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
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Most short-term interest rates in the euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks for excess reserves. This coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) launched in March 2015. In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special”) securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1% of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 basis points.
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We study how listing in multiple markets affects the dynamics between firms’ credit default swap (CDS) and stock returns. We find that cross-listing increases (1) the sensitivity of CDS to stock returns, (2) the integration of CDS with world equity and bond markets, and (3) the statistical synchronicity of CDS and stock prices. Our results are stronger for firms with greater media attention, analyst and CDS coverage, and Google search intensity and for listings in familiar markets. We suggest that a firm’s presence in global equity markets comes with an improvement in the credit-equity integration through a reduction of informational frictions.
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Priority spreading refers to the practice of firms increasing their reliance on secured and subordinated debt and reducing their reliance on senior debt as their credit quality deteriorates. We argue that priority spreading occurs because security provides creditors with greater protection from dilution from other creditors than do covenants that prioritize payments. Consistent with this argument, we find that secured bank creditors are rarely diluted by junior creditors in distressed restructurings, whereas senior unsecured creditors are frequently diluted, exogenous increases in asset volatility result in greater priority spreading and yields on senior and subordinated bonds converge as asset volatility increases.
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We identify flight-to-safety (FTS) days for twenty-three countries using only stock and bond returns and a model averaging approach. FTS days comprise less than 2% of the sample and are associated with a 2.7% average bond-equity return differential and significant flows out of equity funds and into government bond and money market funds. FTS represents flights to both quality and liquidity in international equity markets, but mainly a flight to quality in the U.S. corporate bond market. Emerging markets, endowment funds, and hedge funds perform poorly during FTS, whereas hedge funds appear to vary their systematic exposures prior to an FTS.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
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We revisit Feldhütter and Schaefer (FS, 2018), who report evidence of a “credit spread puzzle” for high-yield but not investment-grade bonds. We show their results are reversed when their model is calibrated to market values of debt (as required by theory) rather than book values. We then demonstrate that using credit spreads rather than historical default rates to identify the default boundary provides the statistical power necessary to reject their assumption that firm dynamics follow geometric Brownian motion. A large market price of jump risk is required to match historical default rates, which generates a credit spread puzzle for investment-grade but not high-yield bonds.
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We find that the degree and dynamics of sovereign bond market integration across 21 developed and 18 emerging countries is significantly heterogeneous. We show that better spanning can significantly enhance market integration through dissipating local risk premiums. Integration of the sovereign bond markets increases by about 10% on average, when a country moves from the 25th to the 75th percentile as a result of higher political stability and credit quality, lower inflation and inflation risk, and lower illiquidity. The 10% increase in integration leads to, on average, a decrease in the sovereign cost of funding of about 1% per annum.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
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Fiscal policy matters for bond risk premia. Empirically, government spending level and uncertainty predict bond excess returns, as well as term structure level and slope movements. Shocks to government spending level and uncertainty are also priced in the cross-section of bond and stock portfolios. Theoretically, government spending level shocks raise inflation when marginal utility is high, thus generating positive inflation risk premia (term structure level effect). Uncertainty shocks steepen the yield curve (slope effect), producing positive term premia. These effects are consistent with evidence from a structural vector autoregression. Asset pricing tests using model simulated data corroborate our empirical findings.
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We show that global political uncertainty, measured by the U.S. election cycle, on average, leads to a fall in equity returns in fifty non-U.S. countries. At the same time, market volatilities rise, local currencies depreciate, and sovereign bond returns increase. The effect of global political uncertainty on equity prices increases with the level of uncertainty in U.S. election outcomes and a country’s equity market exposure to foreign investors, but does not vary with the country’s international trade exposure. These findings suggest that global political uncertainty increases investors’ aggregate risk aversion, leading to a flight to safety.
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During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve established two emergency facilities for broker-dealers: one provided collateralized loans; the other, collateral upgrades. These facilities alleviated dealers’ funding pressures when access to repos backed by illiquid collateral deteriorated. The ability to upgrade collateral allowed dealers to continue funding their own illiquid inventories (avoiding potential firesales) and to provide better bond market liquidity. It also helped sustain dealers’ credit to hedge fund clients, which in turn posted relatively better returns.