Knowledge that Transforms

We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less when banks’ funding costs do not decrease simultaneously. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area.

We propose a novel identification strategy to estimate the long-term imprinting effects of being born in the Great Recession on innovative startups. After purging ubiquitous selection biases and sorting effects, we find that recession startups experience substantially better long-term outcomes in terms of survival and growth in employment and sales, despite being born when funding is scarce and demand is declining. In contrast to prior work, we find that the recession does not encourage entry into entrepreneurship as job prospects dim; instead, it discourages exit by critical R&D workers who help recession startups out-innovate and out-perform expansion startups.

Startups face a trade-off between short-term profitability and long-term growth. Their cash flows are said to follow a so-called J-curve. The shape of the curve depends on investors’ financing capacity: their ability to sustain prolonged periods of negative cash flow. US venture capitalists are often believed to have greater financing capacity. We examine a large Swedish dataset with detailed cash flow information. Swedish startups backed by US venture capitalists experience deeper J-curves, with larger short-term losses and higher long-term sales, relative to those backed by non-US venture capitalists. These results are consistent with US venture capitalists having greater financing capacity: they can provide more funding directly and have better access to later-stage investors.

In credit markets where borrower types are observable, is it welfare-maximizing for a rate-setting institution to offer different rates to different borrower types, or to pool them at a common rate? Moral hazard favours separation; deadweight default costs favour pooling, since compressing rates reduces aggregate defaults through hazard rate heterogeneity. We derive the condition determining which force dominates: the ratio of default cost intensity to moral hazard intensity. We show that there is a single threshold value of this ratio such that separation strictly dominates below it, complete pooling strictly dominates above it, and the two are welfare-equivalent exactly at it, for every possible value of the ratio. The result does not depend on information being scarce: even though borrower types are observable throughout, pooling can still dominate separation when default costs are sufficiently large, provided the maintained compression and effort conditions we state precisely continue to hold; we conjecture, but do not formally establish, that the same logic extends to imperfect information if the threshold, recomputed for that weaker information structure, continues to be exceeded. The welfare criterion is utilitarian surplus; the efficiency claim is surplus maximisation, not Pareto improvement.

We examine how the 2016 Municipal Advisor Regulatory Reform, which professionalized municipal advisors by imposing standards of conduct and minimum competency requirements, affected advisory firms and issuers. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) research design, we find that the reform improved the quality of financial advice provided by independent municipal advisory firms relative to dealer firms. Specifically, independent municipal advisors assemble higher-quality financing teams and ensure greater financial disclosure compliance and timeliness in the post-reform period. These improvements provide tangible economic benefits to issuers through lower bond issuance costs and smaller underwriter fees. Finally, we document that independent advisory firms gain market share and charge higher fees relative to dealer firms after the reform. Overall, our study provides novel evidence linking the professionalization of financial intermediaries to improvements in the quality of advice, financial transparency, and issuer borrowing costs. Data Availability: Data are available from the commercial and public sources identified in the paper.

The past two decades have witnessed dramatic growth in passive investing via exchange-traded funds (ETFs). To the extent that ETF flows reflect nonfundamental investor demand, large ETF flows may push the prices of the underlying stocks away from their fundamental values. Consistent with this conjecture, I first find that ETF flows chase past fund performance, suggesting that ETF flows contain a systematic nonfundamental demand component. I then document that ETF flow-induced trading is associated with contemporaneous stock price increases, followed by return reversals. Accounting-based valuation tests show that ETF flow-induced trading is negatively associated with value-to-price (V/P) ratios, consistent with overvaluation. The effect strengthens for specialized ETFs and stocks with high short-selling constraints. Finally, firms with high ETF flow-induced trading behave in ways typically associated with perceived overvaluation. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

We show that favoritism biases subjective evaluations and that the presence of a third party can mitigate this bias. Using archival data from professional ski jumping, we find that, controlling for objective performance, judges favor athletes of their own nationality and athletes who have a compatriot on the panel. We predict and provide evidence that in-person observation by an audience is associated with lower levels of favoritism compared with third-party observation via mediated communication. We contribute to the accounting literature by highlighting how in-person observation by a third party can reduce the likelihood that favoritism biases subjective evaluations. Data availability: The data used in this study are publicly available from open-access sources.