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Firm uncertainty and households: Spending, savings, and risks

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 172, 104143 open access
Using daily banking and credit card data for thousands of households linked to U.S. publicly listed employers, we find novel evidence that firm-specific uncertainty persistently reduces future spending and spurs precautionary savings. A one-standard-deviation rise in option-implied firm volatility—akin to the S&P 500 VIX—predicts a $106 monthly spending drop (8 hours of wages) and a $193 increase in bank balances, reflecting notable cutbacks in typical non-durable goods and services. The mechanism operates through heightened household risks: firm uncertainty expands both income and consumption risk over the next year, with the largest effects among lower and top earners (notably the top 1%). Employers only partly shield earnings, while households only partly self-insulate consumption risk via smoothing channels. Detrimental uncertainty effects on households are stronger than firm stock price declines.

The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier

Journal of Political Economy 2024 132(2), 577-615
We show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong, and propagate the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. We use a novel instrumentation strategy to address endogeneity in estimating the impact of uncertainty by exploiting differential firm exposure to exchange rate, policy, and energy price volatility. We show that financially constrained firms cut investment more than unconstrained firms following an uncertainty shock. We then build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with real and financial frictions, finding that financial frictions (i) amplify uncertainty shocks by doubling their impact on output; (ii) increase persistence by doubling the duration of the drop; and (iii) propagate uncertainty shocks by spreading their impact onto financial variables.