Knowledge that Transforms

We find that dividend paying firms demonstrate superior corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance in the subsequent year than non-paying firms. This effect can be explained by stakeholder relationship management through CSR, as dividend payout reflects the inherent conflict between shareholders and stakeholders. Specifically, for dividend payers, we find an increase in CSR performance after states adopt constituency statutes which encourage board’s attention on stakeholders, supporting a causal inference of the stakeholder relationship management’s effect on CSR. The increase in dividend payers’ CSR around the constituency statute adoption is more pronounced when management is friendlier to CSR, which lends further support for the stakeholder relationship management channel. We find no support for the short-termism view of dividends or the notion that CSR is solely an outcome of agency problems within firms. In conclusion, our findings suggest that dividend payout serves as a mechanism for balancing shareholder and stakeholder interests, leading to improved CSR performance among dividend-paying firms.

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.

We study the relation between firm financial stability and gender diversity in leadership and highlight its dependence on the initial financial conditions of the firm and the role played by the women leaders. Consistent with the glass cliff and the upper echelon theories, we find that close-to-default firms are more likely to appoint women top executives and that under their leadership, subsequent firms’ risk of default decreases in the short to medium term. In parallel, independent women directors are not associated with firms’ past credit risk, and their presence is more likely to increase the firm’s subsequent default risk, as established by the tokenism and signaling theory. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and endogeneity corrections.

We investigate how a change in regulatory oversight affects bank risk, using the passage of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 as a setting. Using a sample of bank holding companies (BHCs) covering the period 2015Q1 through 2020Q1, we find that risk increases for large BHCs affected by a change in regulatory oversight. In addition to increasing bank level risk, affected BHCs increase their respective contribution to the systemic risk. These BHCs also experience higher profitability, increased market valuation and reduced compliance costs.

Prudential bank regulation complicates monetary policy because it has cyclical effects on the growth of bank credit, which can be a channel through which monetary policy is transmitted to the economy. Employing a panel of 36 advanced and developing countries for the period 1973–2015, we find that changes in regulation have been procyclical with respect to credit surges and counter-cyclical with respect to credit stops. As a result, monetary policy risks being too loose over the credit cycle. The economic effects of prudential regulation on credit have been meaningful given the large-scale bank liberalizations undertaken by many countries. The result is robust to dealing with a wide range of sensitivity tests and endogeneity concerns. In designing regulations, policymakers need to consider transmission mechanisms through which they might affect the real economy and undermine the goals of monetary policy.

I examine the role of bank’s distance to the borrower and the proximity of other lenders for the transmission of financial shocks across the bank network. I use a novel dataset of small business lending based on information from the Community Reinvestment Act, which measures lending at census tract groups within each county and yields rich variation in the bank–borrower and borrower–competitor distance. I document that small banks with increased liquidity from proximity to local oil booms, originate more loans to firms far from these booms, and lenders with above-average geographic exposure to residential booms reduce lending in census tract groups with stable house prices. Bank–borrower distance is important for credit expansions, with closer firms receiving more credit, but not for contractions. Proximity of competitors plays a key role: consistent with theoretical predictions, both credit expansions and contractions disproportionately affect markets where the bank faces higher competition.

This study investigates the effects of bank safety-oriented cultures on loan contracts. We regress stock returns during the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis on these risk-taking characteristics and obtain a residual component to proxy the safety-oriented culture of banks. Our empirical results show that banks with a safety-oriented culture increase the probability of signing a contract with low risk borrowers and that they charge lower loan spreads. We also find that these banks ask for more loan covenants to protect their creditor’s rights. Finally, banks with a safety-oriented culture suffer less from borrowers’ defaults and have higher market responses around the dates of loan announcements. Also, our findings reject the alternative hypothesis that banks with a safety-oriented culture only accept less risky lending due to their conservative risk attitude, thus destroying market value for banks.

The aim of this study is to disentangle the effects of introducing an interest-bearing central bank digital currency (CBDC) for financial stability using a Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model in which (i) both CBDC and private bank deposits can be used in exchange and (ii) liquidity is created endogenously. Agents have direct access to a CBDC, which is a claim on the central bank. They use both sight deposits and CBDC to buy goods and commercial banks borrow reserves to cover liquidity needs. The introduction of an interest-bearing CBDC has direct implications for the sight deposit rate and the loan rate of banks. Besides, if the central bank aims to have a positive net worth and the absence of bank runs, a high demand for a CBDC is a necessary condition to achieve both objectives. If this is not the case, financial stability will be endangered.

We surveyed experts from academia, central banks, and other regulatory institutions on the preferred institutional setup of macroprudential policy and the underlying interactions stemming from the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy. We find substantial support for the integration setup, under which macroprudential policy is entrusted to the central bank and not to a separate institution. The most significant factors driving the respondents’ views are the large degree of interdependence of the two policies, the potential information gains from keeping them “under one roof”, and a greater capability to resolve strategic conflicts. We identify non-negligible heterogeneity in the responses, especially in terms of respondents’ experience, expertise, and position.