Knowledge that Transforms

In a recent article in this Journal, Jacob B. Michaelson and Robert C. Goshay (hereafter M-G) argue that the rule of maximizing share values does not adequately explain the portfolio selection practices of financial intermediaries. Moreover, M-G suggest that their analysis “has ramifications that reach far beyond financial intermediaries.” In particular, they state that “the asset holdings of conglomerate firms and the rationale for mergers may not be fully explicable in terms of maximizing behavior.”

Edward F. Renshaw, Portfolio Balance Models in Perspective: Some Generalizations that Can be Derived from the Two-Asset Case, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 2 (Jun., 1967), pp. 123-149

Broadly speaking there are two models to the problem of asset valuation under uncertainty and aversion to risk. Under one, the certaintyequivalent method, each future return is converted to its certainty equivalent and discounted at the pure rate of interest. Under the other, the risk-adjusted discount rate method, each future return is discounted at an appropriate discount rate. The interrelation and validity of these models of asset valuation have come under discussion in two important works on stock valuation.

A theoretical model capable of supporting a rigorous analysis of portfolio selection in financial intermediaries appeared only recently. In the absence of a suitable theoretical framework, the limitations of maximizing behavior as an explanation of the selection of asset and liability structures in this class of firms were obscured. Discussions bearing on this question usually focused on the structure of one or the other side of intermediary balance sheets and gave little attention to the effects of these structures on the risk associated with their equity.

This paper examines the determinants of underwriters' spreads on tax exempt bond issues. In particular, it investigates the effect on spreads of differences in issue quality, term to maturity, and size. In addition, changing money market conditions and variations in the degree of competition among underwriters of tax exempts are analyzed for their influence on spread behavior. The relationships are studied for virtually all state bond issues sold between July 1, 1959 and December 31, 1965. The principal method of investigation is multiple regression analysis.

R. Byrne, A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper, K. Kortanek, A Chance-Constrained Approach to Capital Budgeting with Portfolio Type Payback and Liquidity Constraints and Horizon Posture Controls, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 4 (Dec., 1967), pp. 339-364

Questions have been raised in recent years concerning the interpretation of previous studies purporting to show that distributed earnings have had a consistently greater impact on equity prices than have retained earnings. Miller and Modigliani have convincingly argued that if capital markets are perfect and rational behavior of market participants is assumed, the price-earnings ratio of the shares of a firm with a given investment policy should be invariant to alternative earnings-payout ratios. They also point out, however, that with the present tax subsidy on capital gains and the existence of substantial brokerage fees and flotation costs, dividend policy might be expected to have an effect on share prices, even though the amount and direction of this effect is an empirical matter and not determinable a priori.

This article will concern itself with the various techniques for selecting portfolios of securities. It should be made clear at the outset that a good portfolio is not just an amalgamation of a number of “good” stocks and bonds. Rather, it is an integrated whole, each security complementing the others. Thus, the investment manager must consider both the characteristics of the individual securities and the relationships between those securities. Until recently there was no comprehensive theoretical framework for the analysis of the latter aspect of the portfolio problem. Intuitive judgment and experience were the guidelines used by investment managers.