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Measuring the costs and benefits of regulation: Conceptual issues in securities markets
This paper reviews the economic theory of regulation and surveys the empirical evidence on its application to past and recent changes in U.S. securities regulation. The theory provides multiple potential motives for regulation and cautions the empirical researcher against naïve modeling of the costs and benefits of regulatory change. Moreover, the nature of the regulatory process compounds the standard pitfalls of empirical analysis such as endogeneity and confounding events. Productive empirical techniques include the development of cross-sectional predictions of the effects of regulation as well as the use of unregulated control samples. An important avenue for future research is a more refined estimation of the extent to which regulation has unintended consequences.
Proxy contests and corporate change: implications for shareholder wealth
We study the shareholder wealth effects of 270 proxy contests for board seats in the 1979–1994 period. We find that proxy contests create value, with the bulk of the wealth gains stemming from firms that are acquired. Restricting analysis to firms listed on Compustat imparts a downward bias on estimated wealth effects because such a restriction excludes a sizable fraction of the firms acquired during the proxy contest. For firms that are not acquired, the occurrence of management turnover has a significant, positive effect on shareholder wealth because firms replacing management are more likely to restructure following the contest.
The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity
We study industry-level patterns in takeover and restructuring activity during the 1982–1989 period. Across 51 industries, we find significant differences in both the rate and time-series clustering of these activities. The interindustry patterns in the rate of takeovers and restructurings are directly related to the economic shocks borne by the sample industries. These results support the argument that much of the takeover activity during the 1980s was driven by broad fundamental factors and have general implications for the stock price spillover effects of takeover announcements, corporate performance following takeovers, and the timing of takeover waves.
Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day
Prior analyses of prices of the NYSE and other exchanges find that transitory price volatility is greater at the open of trading than at the close. We extend this line of research by using 40 years of hourly Dow Jones 65 composite price index data to estimate transitory volatility throughout the trading day. Our results indicate that transitory volatility steadily declines during the trading day. We find a similar intraday decline in transitory volatility for a 2½-year sample of the individual firms in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that trading aids price formation and do not support the argument that particular trading mechanisms are the source of greater volatility at the open of trading.
The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market
We study the relation between the number of news announcements reported daily by Dow Jones & Company and aggregate measures of securities market activity including trading volume and market returns. We find that the number of Dow Jones announcements and market activity are directly related and that the results are robust to the addition of factors previously found to influence financial markets such as day-of-the-week dummy variables, news importance as proxied by large New York Times headlines and major macroeconomic announcements, and noninformation sources of market activity as measured by dividend capture and triple witching trading. However, the observed relation between news and market activity is not particularly strong and the patterns in news announcements do not explain the day-of-the-week seasonalities in market activity. Our analysis of the Dow Jones database confirms the difficulty of linking volume and volatility to observed measures of information.
The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market
We study the relation between the number of news announcements reported daily by Dow Jones & Company and aggregate measures of securities market activity including trading volume and market returns. We find that the number of Dow Jones announcements and market activity are directly related and that the results are robust to the addition of factors previously found to influence financial markets such as day‐of‐the‐week dummy variables, news importance as proxied by large New York Times headlines and major macroeconomic announcements, and noninformation sources of market activity as measured by dividend capture and triple witching trading. However, the observed relation between news and market activity is not particularly strong and the patterns in news announcements do not explain the day‐of‐the‐week seasonalities in market activity. Our analysis of the Dow Jones database confirms the difficulty of linking volume and volatility to observed measures of information.
Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close
Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close
This paper analyzes how the daily opening and closing of financial markets affect trading volume. We model the desire to trade at the beginning and end of the day as a function of overnight return volatility. NYSE data from 1933–88 indicate that closing volume is positively related to expected overnight volatility, while volume at the open is positively related to both expected and unexpected volatility from the previous night. We interpret the symmetric response of trading at the open and the close to expected volatility as being due to investor heterogeneities in the ability to bear risk when the market is closed. This desire of investors to trade prior to market closings indicates a cost of mandating marketwide circuit breakers.
How has takeover competition changed over time?
We study a random sample of completed and withdrawn takeovers during the 1981 to 2014 time period to provide new evidence on the role of takeover impediments such as poison pills, staggered boards and state antitakeover devices. Do such impediments act in the interest of management by promoting entrenchment or do they act in shareholder interest by improving bargaining power during the takeover auction process? We first confirm the growing trend of takeover impediments over time in our sample. We then relate these trends to changes in the takeover auction process over time. Although we corroborate prior findings of a decline in hostile takeovers and publicly reported takeover auctions between the 1980s and later time periods, we find that takeover competition across the entire auction process between deal initiation and completion has not declined. In effect, takeover competition via auctions has gone underground. Moreover, takeover premiums have not declined over time. We interpret the results to be consistent with the shareholder interest/bargaining power hypothesis and inconsistent with the management interest/entrenchment hypothesis. Our analysis highlights the usefulness of research sources for SEC merger documents including microfiche, Lexis Nexis and Thomson One Financial that provide historical information on the takeover auction process prior to the EDGAR filings that started in the mid-1990s.