Knowledge that Transforms

This paper measures the impact of option introductions on the return variance of underlying stocks. Past research generally finds a significant reduction in stock return variance following the listing of options through 1986. Using a more extensive sample, I compare changes in the return variance of optioned stocks to changes in the return variance of a control group. Since the average change in the control group is statistically indistinguishable from the average change in the optioned stocks, I conclude that option introductions do not significantly affect stock return variance.

We investigate the abnormal returns and market-based risk effects of four Federal Reserve Board decisions to allow bank holding companies to engage in investment banking through Section 20 subsidiaries. Positive abnormal returns for commercial banks were observed for initial, limited powers granted by the Federal Reserve. However, authorization to engage in underwriting corporate debt and equity and subsequent expansion of potential revenues from underwritings produced negative abnormal returns and increases in risk.

Within the past few years, public efforts have sought to encourage individual, or “angel”, investors. This article provides an overview of the motivations for these efforts. It assesses the underlying challenges that the financing of young growth firms pose, the ways that specialized financial intermediaries address them, and the rationales for public efforts to encourage angel investors. The final section raises a set of questions about the practical implementation of these efforts.

The widespread Italian practice of multiple borrowing has been studied with respect to the continuity of bank lending and to the interest rates charged to individual borrowers. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the effects of multiple credit relationships over the fragility of the corporate borrowers. Two theses are competing: one asserts that multiple borrowing results in a desirable sharing of risks; the other, that the parcellization of loans substantially weakens the discipline exercised by the banks and makes corporate borrowers more fragile. Through multivariate techniques, we check whether the indicators describing the structure of lending relationships can help, along with balance-sheet variables, to separate healthy from failed firms. This exercise shows that multiple banking relationships are associated with a higher riskiness of the borrowers, even though the impact is moderate in comparison with the importance of real and financial variables derived from balance sheets.

This study tests predictions that pricing multiples on and incremental explanatory power of equity book value (net income) increase (decrease) as financial health decreases. Tests using a sample of 396 bankrupt firms and tests using a larger, pooled sample both yield inferences consistent with predictions. Findings are robust to inclusion of controls for industry, size, return-on-equity, and volatility of equity returns. Equity book value and net income multiples and incremental explanatory power vary predictably across three illustrative industries, selected based on the likely extent of unrecognized intangible assets.

We examine the effect of underwriting relationships on analysts' earnings forecasts and recommendations. Lead and co-underwriter analysts' growth forecasts and recommendations are significantly more favorable than those made by unaffiliated analysts, although their earnings forecasts are not generally greater. Investors respond similarly to lead underwriter and unaffiliated `Strong buy' and `Buy' recommendations, but three-day returns to lead underwriter `Hold' recommendations are significantly more negative than those to unaffiliated `Hold' recommendations. The findings suggest investors expect lead analysts are more likely to recommend `Hold' when `Sell' is warranted. The post-announcement returns following affiliated and unaffiliated analysts' recommendations are not significantly different.

A cross-sectional analysis of cash compensation paid to CEOs of 713 US firms reveals that the sensitivity of compensation to earnings varies directly with earnings persistence. Additional analysis indicates that this sensitivity is greater for cases where executives are approaching retirement. Such evidence suggests the use of earnings persistence to counterbalance adverse consequences of earnings-based contracting with managers who face finite decision horizons.

A model of earnings, cash flows and accruals is developed assuming a random walk sales process, variable and fixed costs, and that the only accruals are accounts receivable and payable, and inventory. The model implies earnings better predict future operating cash flows than current operating cash flows and the difference varies with the operating cash cycle. Also, the model is used to predict serial and cross-correlations of each firm's series. The implications and predictions are tested on a 1337 firm sample over 1963–1992. Both earnings and cash flow forecast implications and correlation predictions are generally consistent with the data.

We empirically document a strategy through which corporations avoid state income taxes. Examining aggregated American state and Canadian provincial data from 1983–1991, we find corporate income tax revenues are concave in corporate tax rates, consistent with firms shifting their tax bases to more favourably taxed jurisdictions. Additional tests exploit unique features of state formula apportionment systems and find manufacturing shipments from states that tax outside their borders (throwback states) are decreasing in corporate income tax rates on sales.