Knowledge that Transforms

Unlike most securities, the pricing of sinking fund bonds is influenced by the distribution of ownership, which summarizes the extent to which the market is cornered. The effect of the distribution of ownership on the pricing of sinking fund bonds is examined by an explicit game in which the price obtained for bonds sold can depend upon the size of the investor's position. This framework is used to contrast the valuation of sinking fund bonds with the valuation of amortizing bonds and straight debt. We show that it is generally incorrect to view sinking fund bonds as being equivalent to serial bonds.

Past studies indicate that stock prices are affected by announcements of unexpected dividend changes, i.e., unexpectedly large dividends are associated with positive stock price response. Two explanations of this empirical regularity, ‘the information content hypothesis’ and the ‘wealth redistribution hypothesis’, imply different bond price behavior around dividend announcements. The information content hypothesis predicts a positive bond price response to unexpectedly large dividends, while the wealth redistribution hypothesis predicts the opposite. This paper distinguishes between the relative importance of the two hypotheses by empirically investigating bond price behavior around dividend announcements. The evidence presented is consistent with the information content hypothesis. However, the gains associated with positive information are captured by the stockholders, while the losses are shared with the bondholders.

We develop a theory of warrants held by competitive warrantholders not constrained to exercise their warrants as one block; the theory also applies to convertible bonds held by competitive bondholders not constrained to convert their bonds as one block. We prove that the warrant (bond) price in each of the competitive equilibria is less than or equal to the price in an economy with the block constraint; and for at least one competitive equilibrium the warrant (bond) price equals the warrant (bond) price in the block-constrained economy. We illustrate the paths of competitive warrant exercise and bond conversion and conclude that under realistic assumptions they can be long.

Merton (1973) in his seminal article ‘Theory of Rational Option Pricing’ showed that the rationally determined price of a call option is a non-decreasing function of the ‘riskness’ of its associated common stock. In deriving his results, Merton made restrictive assumptions about the way the market prices payoff distributions, and used the Rothschild-Stiglitz (1970) measure to compare the riskiness of securities. I show by means of an example that the Merton result will not in general be true. I then derive a sufficient condition for the option on one stock to have higher market value than the option on another stock, when both the stocks have the same price, and explain why the Merton result is valid in the Black-Scholes environment.

The quality option implicit in futures contracts allows the short position to satisfy the contract by delivering one of a variety of specified assets. If, at the time the contract is purchased, knowledge of which of the allowed assets will be cheapest at maturity is uncertain, then the quality option will have value. The greater the value of this option, the lower will be the futures price. This paper presents, and tests, a futures pricing model that incorporates the quality option aspect of commodity futures contracts. Our research shows that the quality option has a significant impact on futures prices.

This paper provides evidence on the valuation effects of convertible debt issuance. Common stockholders earn significant negative abnormal returns at the initial announcement of a convertible debt offering, and also at the issuance date. In contrast, the average valuation effect on common stock at the announcement of non-convertible debt offerings is only marginally negative, and is zero at issuance. The significant negative average effect on common stock value appears not to be systematically related to either the degree of leverage change induced by the convertible debt issuance or the extent to which the proceeds from issuance are used for new investment or to refinance existing debt. If, as appears likely, the issuance of convertible debt on average increases financial leverage, these results are inconsistent with evidence from other recent studies documenting common stock price effects of the same sign as the change in leverage. The evidence suggests that convertible debt offerings convey unfavorable information about the issuing firms, but the specific nature of such information remains unidentified.

This paper examines expected returns on U.S. Treasury bills and on U.S. Government bond portfolios. Expected bill returns are estimated from forward rates and from sample average returns. Both estimation methods indicate that expected returns on bills tend to peak at eight or nine months and never increase monotonically out to twelve months. Reliable inferences are limited to Treasury bills and thus to maturities up to a year. The variability of longer-term bond returns preempts precise conclusions about their expected returns.

The question whether a given porfolio is mean-variance efficient is a basic problem of investment analysis. Mean-variance efficiency is also the basis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. This paper presents the explicit form of the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis that a given portfolio, or a particular market index, is ex-ante mean-variance efficient in the case where there is no riskless asset. Geometric relations are illustrated to provide intuition about the constrained maximum likelihood estimators and the test statistic, and two simple economic interpretations of the test are given.

This paper studies the trading characteristics of listed companies by size, and year-end behavior. There were no transactions on nearly 25% of the days for the smallest decile even at the turn of year which is an active trading period for small companies. As a result of low levels of trading and the regulations governing exchange specialists, transaction prices and quotations of small listed companies may require several days to fully reflect equilibrium price changes. The data confirm the existence of a year-end seasonal pattern in rates of return for small companies and suggest that there may be a seasonal pattern for large companies as well.

This paper examines the seasonality in the basic relationship between expected return and risk during 1935–82. The results reveal that the positive relationship between return and risk is unique to January. The risk premiums during the remaining eleven months are not significantly different from zero.