Knowledge that Transforms

Demand and reserve uncertainty are included in a simple model of an exhaustible resource market by allowing the demand function and the reserve level to fluctuate via continuous-time stochastic processes. Thus, producers always know current demand and reserves but do not know what demand and reserves will be in the future. I show that demand uncertainty has no effect on the expected dynamics of market price, while reserve uncertainty shifts the expected rate of change of price only if extraction costs are nonlinear in reserves. However, if the demand function is nonlinear, both demand, and reserve uncertainty affect the dynamics of production, whatever the character of extraction costs. The model is also extended to include exploration, first as a means of reducing uncertainty and second as a means of accumulating reserves, with uncertainty over the future response of discoveries to exploratory effort.

A version of the overlapping-generations model suggests that an increase in the rate of innovation alters capital formation in favor of schooling and other human capital at the expense of physical capital, and tends to reduce total savings, defined as human investments plus financial savings. The theoretical explanation suggests that relative capital formation in human beings, but not necessarily absolute capital formation, is positively associated with the degree of innovation. Analysis of U.S. time-series data supports the hypotheses advanced in the paper.

The paper examines the trajectories of the economic variables when government expenditures are financed by changes in the money stock. It is shown that government budget balance is not a condition for equilibrium. If the nominal rate of interest changes by about as much as the expected rate of inflation, a rise in real government purchases per capita has the following effects: There will be a positive impact upon output per capita but steady-state output per capita and the capital intensity will decline, and there will be a rise in the inflation tax on real balances and steady-state rate of inflation.

The traditional explanation for the pattern of commodity price adjustment to monetary change, which stresses factors affecting the short-run elasticities of supply and demand in different markets, does not take into account price flexibility. This paper offers an explanation for the pattern of commodity price adjustment to monetary change based on differing degrees of price flexibility across industries, where price flexibility is determined by contract length. An extension to product markets of the theory of implicit long-term wage contracts leads to a simple hypothesis which explains the pattern of industry and sectoral price response to monetary change by implicit contract length, the latter being determined by relative price variability. Tests of this hypothesis across broad sectors and industries using postwar U.S. data produce favorable results. Also confirmed by the empirical evidence is the pattern of industry and sectoral price response to monetary change suggested by the tradition approach.

This paper examines empirically the relationship between innovative activity, as measured by the rate of return to research-and-development expenditures, and firm size using a sample of firms from the chemicals and allied products industry (SIC 28). We find that size is a prerequisite for successful innovative activity. The estimated rate of return to research and development for the smaller firms is 30 percent, while for the larger size firms it is 78 percent. Statistical tests for structural stability were used to divide the sample into these two behavioral regimes.

The advance of economics into the traditional domains of other social sciences has thus far largely overlooked anthropology. In this review article on Frederic Pryor's The Origins of the Economy I argue that economics has many fruitful applications to the study of primitive society. I fault Pryor's book for its lack of a theoretical framework and argue that such a framework can be derived from the economics of information and uncertainty. In particular, it can be argued that many primitive social institutions are substitutes for formal markets in insurance.

Poor people in low-income countries are no less concerned about improving their lot and that of their children than those of us who have incomparably more income. They are also competent in using their meager resources. Many low-income countries have advanced substantially in recent decades in improving the quality of their population and in acquiring useful knowledge. These achievements imply favorable economic prospects, provided they are not dissipated by politics.

[Puzzle 1: Was Judge Hand correct in his celebrated judicial opinion that Alcoa's monopoly in "virgin" aluminum provided indirect control over "secondary" production? Answer: Estimates based on three models suggest that the "procompetitive" effect of recycling was largely offset by a reduction in virgin production in anticipation of future conversion into secondary. Thus, Hand's judgment appears sound. Puzzle 2: Is it in Alcoa's own interests to suppress recycling of scrap aluminum if feasible? Answer: If current users show that they value the future use of the product by selling scrap to merchants, then Alcoa is likely to value the recycling market also. If users discard scrap which is subsequently scavenged, then Alcoa is likely to be harmed by such activity.]