Knowledge that Transforms

Analyses of strike behavior rarely take account of prior learning and experience of bargainers. We show that experienced bargainers have fewer strikes than others and that differences in strike activity across U.S. manufacturing industries vary inversely with the estimated cost of striking. The cost of striking is measured as an inverse function of the ease of substituting pre- and poststrike production for strike-inhibited output. The occurrence of strikes, among rational and experienced bargainers, is attributed to the cost of designing contingent contracts applicable to unlikely circumstances, relative to the expected cost of strikes in such circumstances, absent contingent contracts.

This paper tests the fundamental implication of classical stochastic macroeconomic models à la Sargent-Lucas, namely, that conditional means of real variables are invariant with respect to monetary and fiscal policy. Using a multiple-equations technique to examine U.S. data from 1952:II to 1972:III, the classical hypothesis (which includes the natural-rate hypothesis) is rejected. While such evidence does not completely rule out the possibility of classical behavior by the economy, it provides some reassurance for those predisposed toward policy activism.

Using a Bayesian framework, this paper considers a risk-neutral firm which has to pick an investment project out of many that are available. It is shown that, if the firm is allowed to collect information, it will usually devote some time to information gathering before choosing. The main result is that, when uncertainty increases, the firm finds it profitable to delay investment decisions even further in order to collect more information. Thus increased uncertainty decreases the current level of investment even under risk neutrality. Another implication is that increased uncertainties cause an increase in the demand for liquid assets.

This paper develops an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates and prices of goods. Changes in relative prices of goods, due to supply or demand shifts, induce changes in exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity. These changes may create a correlation between the exchange rate and the terms of trade, but this correlation cannot be exploited by the government to affect the terms of trade by foreign exchange market operations.

This paper presents an answer, not found in the literature, to Rothschild's criticism that search models are unsatisfactory until they provide an explanation of price dispersion. The search models of Stiler and McCall are closed by explaining the firm's optimal decision-making problem. Then the existence of an equilibrium distribution of prices is established for both models. The analysis shows that price dispersion is supported and explained by a dispersion of production costs. The Stigler model shows that the variance of the price distribution increases while the McCall model shows that the variance eventually decreases with the intensity of search.

Using the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model of trade, it is shown that a country is revealed to be relatively well endowed in capital compared with labor if and only if one of the following three conditions holds, where K"x, K"m, L"x, L"m, K"c, L"c are capital and labor embodied in exports, imports, and consumption: (a) K"x - K"m extgreater 0, L"x - L"m extless 0; (b) K"x - K"m extgreater 0, L"x - L"m extgreater 0, (K"x - K"m)/(L"x - L"m) extgreater K"c/L"c; (c) K"x - K"m extless 0, L"x - L"m extless 0, (K"x - K"m)/(L"x - L"m) extless K"c/L"c. Leontief's data for the United States in 1947 satisfy b, and the United States is actually revealed by trade to be capital abundant. The comparison by Leontief of K"x/L"x with K"m/L"m is shown to be theoretically inappropriate.

[Using Kendrick's recently published data on human and nonhuman wealth in the United States, log-linear money demand functions of the "partial adjustment" variety are estimated by introducing in each nonhuman, total, or human wealth as the scale or the "constraint" variable. It is found that the long-run elasticity of money demand with respect to nonhuman wealth is somewhat larger than that with respect to total wealth, and the elasticity with respect to human wealth is the lowest. Such a structure in the elasticities is observed consistently, although differences between the elasticities are not large and perhaps not statistically significant.]

Fluctuating input prices are shown to cause greater variability in the profits of monopolies than of competitive firms. Hence monopolies have greater incentives to hold input stocks and participate in futures markets than do competitive firms.