Knowledge that Transforms

Anne Case et al. (2002), using cross-sectional data, found a positive relationship between children's health and income, with income's protective effect increasing with age. Janet Currie and Mark Stabile (2003), using a panel of Canadian children, found that low- and high-SES children respond similarly to health shocks, but the low-SES children are subject to more shocks as they age. Our study examines this relationship using panel data for US children. We find some support for the latter result of Currie and Stabile, but also evidence that low- and high-SES children respond differently to specific health shocks.

How High Are Rates of Return to Fertilizer? Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya by Esther Duflo, Michael Kremer and Jonathan Robinson. Published in volume 98, issue 2, pages 482-88 of American Economic Review, May 2008

We study unemployment insurance for workers who sequentially sample job opportunities. We focus on the optimal timing of benefits and the desirability of allowing borrowing and saving. When workers have constant absolute risk aversion, a simple policy is optimal: a constant benefit during unemployment, a constant tax during employment, and free access to a riskless asset. With constant relative risk aversion, optimal policy involves nearly constant benefits; more elaborate policies offer minuscule welfare gains. We highlight two distinct policy roles: ensuring workers have sufficient liquidity to smooth their consumption; and providing unemployment subsidies to insure against uncertain spell duration.

This paper evaluates an experiment in which individuals in rural Malawi were randomly assigned monetary incentives to learn their HIV results after being tested. Distance to the HIV results centers was also randomly assigned. Without any incentive, 34 percent of the participants learned their HIV results. However, even the smallest incentive doubled that share. Using the randomly assigned incentives and distance from results centers as instruments for the knowledge of HIV status, sexually active HIV-positive individuals who learned their results are three times more likely to purchase condoms two months later than sexually active HIV-positive individuals who did not learn their results; however, HIV-positive individuals who learned their results purchase only two additional condoms than those who did not. There is no significant effect of learning HIV-negative status on the purchase of condoms.

Estimating Average Treatment Effects with Continuous and Discrete Covariates: The Case of Swan-Ganz Catheterization by Qi Li, Jeffrey S. Racine and Jeffrey M. Wooldridge. Published in volume 98, issue 2, pages 357-62 of American Economic Review, May 2008

In the literature, two approaches to index numbers are distinguished: the axiomatic approach and the economic approach. In this note we discuss the way in which these two approaches differ and how that affects what the numbers mean. The difference is regularly described as one between an approach that does and an approach that does not assume that quantities arise from optimizing behaviour. We argue that a more accurate description is that the difference lies in whether or not optimizing agents, or representative consumers, are assumed to optimize the same utility function. It is exactly this distinction that sets the (different) limitations of both approaches for constructing a meaningful indicator of real income.

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

We propose a theory of the global production process that focuses on tradeable tasks, and use it to study how falling costs of offshoring affect factor prices in the source country. We identify a productivity effect of task trade that benefits the factor whose tasks are more easily moved offshore. In the light of this effect, reductions in the cost of trading tasks can generate shared gains for all domestic factors, in contrast to the distributional conflict that typically results from reductions in the cost of trading goods.

Economists have long argued that a strong linkage between compensation and performance is essential for resolving the agency problem created by the separation of ownership and control. In particular Michael C. Jensen and Kevin J. Murphy (1990) were very influential in giving impetus to the view that such incentives were in need of strengthening. Compared to accounting benchmarks, the stock price is more forward looking, and it is responsive to all value-relevant information, including informal and unverifiable items of news. This makes stock and/or option awards an important part of optimal incentives, and constitutes a primary reason for seeking a public listing, as argued by Bengt Holmstrom and Jean Tirole (1993). Until recently, however, theories of optimal executive compensation have generally ignored the possibility that the stock price can be manipulated or falsified. It is becoming increasingly clear that this is an important issue. In a spate of recent scandals, companies have misled the investing public by vastly overstating their profitability and prospects, and substantive restatements of company accounts have become increasingly commonplace. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that executive pay in its current form may be at least in part responsible. Recent studies finding a link between unusual movements in performance measures (such as accounting yardsticks and publicly disclosed price-sensitive information) and compensation include Daniel Bergstresser and Thomas Philippon (2006), Natasha Burns and Simi Kedia (2006), and Peng and Roell (forthcoming). Thus, the benefits of stock-based incentives should be weighed against their side effects. This paper models optimal executive compensation in a setting where managers are in a position to influence the public perception of Manipulation and Equity-Based Compensation

Due to betrayal aversion, people take risks less willingly when the agent of uncertainty is another person rather than nature. Individuals in six countries (Brazil, China, Oman, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United States) confronted a binary-choice trust game or a risky decision offering the same payoffs and probabilities. Risk acceptance was calibrated by asking individuals their “minimum acceptable probability” (MAP) for securing the high payoff that would make them willing to accept the risky rather than the sure payoff. People's MAPs are generally higher when another person, rather than nature, determines the outcome. This indicates betrayal aversion.