Knowledge that Transforms

The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short run and the long run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe toward the northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out.

Tobacco regulation has been a major component of health policy in the developed world since the UK Royal College of Physicians' and the US Surgeon General's reports in the 1960s. Such regulation, which has intensified in the past two decades, includes cigarette taxation, place-based smoking bans in areas ranging from bars and restaurants to workplaces, and regulations designed to make tobacco products less desirable. More recently, the availability of alternative products, most notably e-cigarettes, has increased dramatically, and these products are just starting to be regulated. Despite an extensive body of research on tobacco regulations, there remains substantial debate regarding their effectiveness, and ultimately, their impact on economic welfare. We provide the first comprehensive review of the state of research in the economics of tobacco regulation in two decades.

This article provides an overview of the origins and development of stratification economics as a subfield that centers the importance of identity, social ranking, and relative group position. Stratification economics developed in response to explanations for interracial/ethnic/gender inequality that invoked group-based dysfunction on the part of the subordinate community. Influences, detailed here, include the works of W. E. B. DuBois, Thorstein Veblen, Karl Marx, Eric Williams, Herbert Blumer, Claude Steele, Cecilia Ridgeway, Thomas Pettigrew, and Linda Tropp. The article concludes with an exploration of unique insights and extensions stratification economics affords a variety of themes: the impact of multiple identities, the determinants of individual productivity, variation in intensity of group identification, “passing,” sources of intergroup differences in wealth, and social mobility and immigration.

There is a growing interest in using carbon taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not only in industrialized economies but also in developing economies. Many countries have considered carbon pricing, including carbon taxes, as policy instruments to meet their emission reduction targets set under the Paris Climate Agreement. However, policy makers, particularly from developing countries, are seeking clarity on several issues—particularly the impacts of carbon taxes on the economy, the distribution of these impacts across households, carbon tax design architectures, the effects of carbon taxes on the competitiveness of carbon-intensive industries, and comparison of carbon taxes with other policy instruments for climate change mitigation. This paper aims to offer insights on these issues by synthesizing the literature available since the 1970s, when the concept of carbon tax was first introduced. This paper also identifies the areas where further investigations are needed.

The mathematical framework of psychological game theory is useful for describing many forms of motivation where preferences depend directly on one’s own or others’ beliefs. It allows for incorporating, for example, emotions, reciprocity, image concerns, and self-esteem in economic analysis. We explain how and why, discussing basic theory, experiments, applied work, and methodology.

Since its launch in 2009 much has been written about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchains. While the discussions initially took place mostly on blogs and other popular media, we now are witnessing the emergence of a growing body of rigorous academic research on these topics. By the nature of the phenomenon analyzed, this research spans many academic disciplines including macroeconomics, law and economics, and computer science. This survey focuses on the microeconomics of crypto-currencies themselves. What drives their supply, demand, trading price, and competition amongst them? This literature has been emerging over the past decade and the purpose of this paper is to summarize its main findings so as to establish a base upon which future research can be conducted.

Agri-food value chains (AVCs) intermediate the flow of products between largely rural farmers, fisherfolk, or herders and increasingly urban consumers. The theoretical models that historically structured research on the economic development process assumed away AVC functions, however, and AVC firms and workers were necessarily omitted from the household data that generated most empirical findings in the agricultural and development economics literatures. As a result, the discipline has somewhat overlooked the rapid growth and structural change in AVCs over the past few decades that turned AVCs into major employers and sources of value addition, as well as key loci for technology transfer and foreign investment. This paper offers an integrated, structured, empirical narrative of how and why AVC revolutions occur in developing countries, the impacts of those changes, and the abundant economic research opportunities these structural changes afford economists.

We synthesize the literature on the recent rise of populism. First, we discuss definitions and present descriptive evidence on the recent increase in support for populists. Second, we cover the historical evolution of populist regimes since the late nineteenth century. Third, we discuss the role of secular economic factors related to cross-border trade and automation. Fourth, we review studies on the role of the 2008–09 global financial crisis and subsequent austerity, connect them to historical work covering the Great Depression, and discuss likely mechanisms. Fifth, we discuss studies on identity politics, trust, and cultural backlash. Sixth, we discuss economic and cultural consequences of growth in immigration and the recent refugee crisis. We also discuss the gap between perceptions and reality regarding immigration. Seventh, we review studies on the impact of the internet and social media. Eighth, we discuss the literature on the implications of populism’s recent rise. We conclude outlining avenues for further research.

Current Editorial Board:Pierre Azoulay, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyOlivier Coibion, University of Texas, AustinWill Dobbie (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityRaymond Fisman (Co-Chair), Boston UniversityBenjamin R. Handel, University of California, BerkeleyBrian A. Jacob, University of MichiganKareen Rozen, Brown UniversityXiaoxia Shi, University of Wisconsin–MadisonTavneet Suri, MITDaniel Xu, Duke UniversityRecently Retired from the Editorial Board:Rema N. Hanna (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityShachar Kariv, University of California, BerkeleyTable 1—Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2017–2021This table shows the trends in papers submitted and published over the past five years. The journal has seen increased growth in paper submissions: 14% in 2018, 11% in 2019, and 25% in 2020. Submission numbers remained steady in 2021. The number of published papers has remained steady, ranging from 65 to 70 papers per year.Table 2—Status of Manuscripts by Year of Submission, 2017–2021This table shows the status of manuscripts submitted over the past five years. The papers summarily rejected remained steady, ranging from 54% to 62% of papers submitted. The percent of papers sent out for review but ultimately rejected has remained steady, ranging from 29% to 35% of papers. Acceptance rates range from 7% to 8% of papers submitted. Papers submitted in 2021 have not had enough time to accurately reflect the acceptance rate.Table 3—Decision Time for Manuscripts Sent to Referees for ReviewThis table reports the decision time for manuscripts sent to referees for review over the past five years. In 2018, the average decision time for papers that were sent to referees was 95 days. The average decision time in 2021 improved to 86 days. In addition, the decision time at the right tail improved substantially.Table 4—Distribution of First Decision Times by Submission YearThis table includes all first-round paper submissions and shows the distribution of decision times in monthly increments for the past five years. This table also reflects the improvement in the journal's decision turnaround times. In 2021, 86% of manuscripts received a decision within three months and 99% within five months.Table 5—Subject Matter of Published Manuscripts, 2021This table shows the distribution of the subject matter of papers published in 2021. Published papers covered a variety of subjects, but the most common were microeconomics and macro- and monetary economics. Table 1.Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2017–2021YearSubmittedPublished20171,0496820181,2007020191,3306620201,6666520211,67465

Many development programs that attempt to disseminate improved technologies are limited in duration because of external funding constraints or an assumption of impact sustainability, but there is limited evidence on whether and when terminating such programs is efficient. We provide novel experimental evidence on the impacts of a randomized phaseout of an agricultural extension and subsidy program that promotes improved inputs and cultivation practices among smallholder women farmers in Uganda. We find that phaseout does not diminish the use of either practices or inputs as farmers shift purchases from NGO-sponsored village-based supply networks to market sources. These results indicate that short-term interventions can suffice to trigger persistent effects, consistent with models of technology adoption that emphasize learning from experience.