I show how aggregate risk influences credit default swap (CDS) markets and CDS regulation in an analytically tractable general equilibrium framework. For low aggregate risk, the equilibrium with unregulated CDS markets is efficient with bondholders being fully insured. A general efficient allocation can be implemented via transfers alone. For intermediate aggregate risk, a margin requirement on CDS sellers is also necessary to implement the general efficient allocation. If aggregate risk is sufficiently high, unregulated CDS markets break down. A margin requirement on CDS sellers restores equilibrium and efficiency, but it must be maximally stringent and accompanied by constraints on CDS purchases by buyers. (JEL G22, G28, D52)

[We develop a structural model to investigate the effects of asymmetric beliefs and agency conflicts on dynamic principal-agent relationships. Optimism has a first-order effect on incentives, investments, and output, which could reconcile the private equity puzzle. Asymmetric beliefs cause optimal contracts to have features consistent with observed venture capital and research and development (R& D) contracts. We derive testable implications for the effects of project characteristics on contractual features. We calibrate our model to data on pharmaceutical R& D projects and show that optimism indeed significantly influences project values. Permanent and transitory components of risk have opposing effects on project values and durations.]

We examine the financing choices of undiversified owner-managers in a continuous-time model. Managers' financing choices as well as their dynamic equity stakes, which trade off their private benefits and the costs they incur due to their lack of diversification, are simultaneously and endogenously determined. Our analysis leads to the novel, empirically testable implications that leverage increases with the drift or expected growth rate of the firm's earnings. Debt maturity varies non-monotonically in a U-shaped manner with the project's drift and with its volatility. The predicted variations of leverage and debt maturity with the actual drift of earnings (controlling for the risk-neutral drift) are key implications of our theory that arise from the incorporation of agency conflicts between undiversified managers and well-diversified outside investors. They cannot, therefore, be obtained in traditional capital structure models in which all agents are well-diversified. Our predictions for the variation of leverage and debt maturity with project characteristics potentially reconcile empirical findings that are not consistent with previous theories. We also derive additional novel implications that link manager-specific characteristics – the discount rate or “degree of myopia” and the risk aversion – to leverage and debt maturity. These implications provide support for growing empirical evidence of the significant impact of manager characteristics and manager “fixed effects” on corporate financial policies.

ABSTRACT We develop an arbitrage‐free and complete framework to price options on the stocks of firms involved in a merger or acquisition deal allowing for the possibility that the deal might be called off at an intermediate time, creating discontinuous impacts on the stock prices. Our model can be a normative tool for market makers to quote prices for options on stocks involved in such deals and also for traders to control risks associated with such deals using traded options. The results of tests indicate that the model performs significantly better than the Black–Scholes model in explaining observed option prices.

We develop a multi-period learning model to examine the relation between analysts’ forecasting behavior and their performance. In a competitive market for banking services, the surplus and the analyst's payoff, which is determined through bargaining, are convex in her reputation. The convexity of her payoff structure and the presence of employment risk lead to a U-shaped relation between the analyst's forecast boldness and prior performance and a positive relation between forecast boldness and experience. We find support for these predictions in our empirical analysis. Significant underperformers (outperformers) face higher (lower) employment risk and are more likely to issue bolder forecasts.

We develop a market equilibrium model to show how search frictions in the CEO market, agency conflicts and product market characteristics interact to affect CEO market tightness, firm size and CEO incentive pay. The theory generates novel implications that link firms' product markets with CEO markets. Different determinants of competition—the entry cost, product substitutability, and market size—have contrasting effects on CEO market tightness, CEO pay and firm size. We also derive new predictions for the impact of product market risk on firm size and CEO incentive compensation. We show empirical support for several cross-sectional hypotheses derived from the theory for how CEO pay, CEO incentives, firm size and market tightness vary with product market characteristics.

We propose a multiperiod model to value employee options allowing for the possibility that a risk-averse employee strategically exercises her options over time rather than at a single date. Our results describing the representative employee's option exercise behavior are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence. The value of options to the employee and their effective cost to the firm are significantly different from the predictions of a constrained model that assumes “single date” strategic option exercise. The constrained model substantially underestimates the cost of options to the firm when, ceteris paribus, the employee's relative risk aversion and/or the time to maturity and/or the stock volatility exceed respective thresholds. Hence, the incorporation of “multiple-date” exercise has important economic and accounting consequences.

We develop a structural model to quantitatively analyze the effects of asymmetric beliefs and agency conflicts on capital structure. Capital structure reflects the dynamic tradeoff between the positive incentive effects of managerial optimism and the negative effects of risk-sharing costs. Consistent with empirical evidence, long-term debt declines with optimism, whereas short-term borrowing increases. Permanent and transitory risk components have contrasting effects. Long-term debt increases with the intrinsic risk, but varies nonmonotonically with the transient risk. Short-term borrowing declines with the intrinsic risk, but increases with the transient risk. Overall, our findings show that asymmetric beliefs significantly influence firms’ financial policies.

We develop a structural industry equilibrium model to show how competitive chief executive officer (CEO)-firm matching and product markets jointly determine firm value and CEO pay. We analytically derive testable implications for the effects of product market characteristics on firm size, CEO pay, and CEO impact on firm value. CEO talent matters more in more competitive markets with greater product substitutabilities. Our CEO impact estimates are much higher than those obtained by previous structural approaches that abstract away from CEO market segmentation. The estimates differ across industries primarily due to variation in product market competition, rather than variation in the CEO talent distribution.

We develop a structural model to investigate the effects of asymmetric beliefs and agency conflicts on dynamic principal--agent relationships. Optimism has a first-order effect on incentives, investments, and output, which could reconcile the private equity puzzle. Asymmetric beliefs cause optimal contracts to have features consistent with observed venture capital and research and development (R&D) contracts. We derive testable implications for the effects of project characteristics on contractual features. We calibrate our model to data on pharmaceutical R&D projects and show that optimism indeed significantly influences project values. Permanent and transitory components of risk have opposing effects on project values and durations. The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected], Oxford University Press.