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Comment on Lazear and Michael
An empirical investigation of calls of non-convertible bonds
This paper examines call behavior of corporate issuers of non-convertible bonds. Evidence from a sample of 102 calls indicates that the market value of the called bonds is usually below the call price at the time of the announcement. The stock price reactions to call announcements are positively related to the direction of the change in leverage. When the call relaxes restrictive covenants, the firm on average pays a larger premium to call debt. The premium is a minimum estimate of the potential opportunity costs of restrictive covenants.
An Interest Group Model of Direct Income Redistribution
An interest group model of the determinants of policies which directly re distribute income to low income persons is developed and tested. The model assum es that altruistic taxpayers, nonaltruistic taxpayers, and needy beneficiaries f orm separate interest groups from which politicians seek support. Benefit levels depend on variables such as taxpayer income and the price of benefits but, unlike median voter models, the model also implies a role for interest group strengt h and competition between political parties. The author uses latent variable met hods and data on the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program to demonstr ate empirical support forthe model.
The illusion of managerial control
Une expérience sur la précision des techniques d‘évaluation des probabilités en vérification
Résumé. Soixante‐deux vérificateurs/praticiens ont pris part à une expérience d'estimation du solde d'un compte. Ayant reçu au préalable un matériel d'apprentissage à la fois écrit et oral, ils ont utilisé quatre techniques de déduction (FDC, FDP, EPE, et EFH) afin de quantifier leurs croyances subjectives ayant trait au solde de comptes clients d'un cas de vérification. Leurs réponses furent par la suite comparées aux résultats d'une étude de simulation portant sur six cents (600) échantillons, au moyen de la règle de pointage quadratique, de même qu'à la distribution résultant d'un consensus parmi tous les sujets en utilisant la mesure de Kolmogorov‐Smirnov. Les résultats montrent que la technique de déduction FDP produit la distribution de probabilités préalables la plus précise pour utilisation dans le contexte de l'analyse Bayesienne. Les trois autres techniques de déduction se sont révélées égales entre elles, dans la mesure où leur précision était inférieure à celle de la technique de déduction FDP.
A test of the accuracy of probability assessment techniques in auditing*
Sixty‐two practising auditors participated in an account balance estimation experiment. Having been provided with written and oral training material, they used four elicitation techniques (CDF, PDF, EPS, and HFS) to quantify their subjective beliefs regarding the accounts receivable balance of an audit case study. Their responses were compared to the results of a 600 sample simulation study, using the quadratic scoring rule. Their responses were also compared to the consensus distribution of all subjects using the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov measure. The results indicated that PDF is the elicitation technique generating the most accurate prior probability distribution for use in Bayesian analysis. The other three elicitation techniques were about equal in the degree to which they were less accurate than the PDF technique.