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The Probability of a Trade at the Ask: An Examination of Interday and Intraday Behavior

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1992 27(2), 209
This paper tests the null hypothesis of no difference in the probability of a trade occurring at the ask using a new database containing intraday bid-ask quotes and transaction prices on both U.S. and Canadian Exchanges. We use LOGIT analysis to test the hypothesis across days of the week, price-stratified portfolios, and times of the day. We find systematic patterns in the probability of a trade at the ask resembling previously documented returns anomalies and conclude that the findings of previous weekend and intraday returns studies may be overstated. The significance of this conclusion substantially increases as one moves from the use of interday to intraday data.

Post-trade transparency on Nasdaq's national market system1We would like to thank Tom Abbott, Robert Battalio, George Benston, Bill Christie, Larry Fisher, Steve Foerster, Jason Greene, Mike Jensen, Pete Kyle, Paul Laux, Ananth Madhavan, Jean Masson, Junius Peake, Paul Schultz, Paul Seguin, Paul Torregrosa, Dave Whitcomb, as well as seminar participants at the Northern, Southern, and Western Finance Meetings, the Symposium on the Organization of Financial Trade and Exchange Mechanisms, the Symposium in Tribute to Larry Fisher, Baruch College, Georgetown University, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the SEC, and Paul Seguin (the referee), for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier versions of this paper.1

Journal of Financial Economics 1998 50(2), 231-252
This article examines late trade reporting on the Nasdaq National Market System. A substantial number of trades are reported out-of-sequence on both absolute levels and relative to the combined centralized exchanges. We find minimal support for NASD permitted reasons for the late trade reporting. Evidence suggests that market makers could use late trade reporting to manage the release of information. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the delayed reporting of trades is neither a random occurrence nor fully explainable by factors outside the market maker's control.