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Making Sense of Nonbinding Retail-Price Recommendations

American Economic Review 2013 103(1), 335-359 open access
We model retail-price recommendations (RPRs) as a communication device in vertical supply relations with private manufacturer information on production costs and consumer demand. With static trade, RPRs are irrelevant, and the equilibrium outcome is inefficient. With repeated trade, RPRs can become part of a relational contract, communicating private information from manufacturer to retailer that is indispensable for maximizing joint surplus. We show that this contract is self-enforcing if the retailer's profit is independent of production costs and punishment strategies are chosen appropriately. The predictions of our analysis are consistent with the available empirical evidence.

What drives the disappearing dividends phenomenon?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(9), 3499-3514 open access
We study the determinants of dividend payout policy and examine the role of liquidity, risk and catering in explaining the changes in propensity to pay. Our results indicate that risk plays a major role in firms’ dividend policy. The evidence substantiates from a large sample of firms representing 18 countries over the sample period from 1989 to 2011. For firms in the US, France, UK and Other European markets, liquidity is additionally an important determinant of dividend policy. We find that, although catering incentives persist only among firms in common law countries and not in civil law countries, after adjusting for risk there is little support for catering theory even among firms incorporated in common law countries. Our results indicate that catering incentives reflect the risk-reward relationship in the changing propensity to pay dividends.

Economic valuation of liquidity timing

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(12), 5073-5087 open access
This paper conducts a horse-race of different liquidity proxies using dynamic asset allocation strategies to evaluate the short-horizon predictive ability of liquidity on monthly stock returns. We assess the economic value of the out-of-sample power of empirical models based on different liquidity measures and find three key results: liquidity timing leads to tangible economic gains; a risk-averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy based on various liquidity measures to one that conditions on the Zeros measure (Lesmond et al., 1999); the Zeros measure outperforms other liquidity measures because of its robustness in extreme market conditions. These findings are stable over time and robust to controlling for existing market return predictors or considering risk-adjusted returns.

Control Functions and Simultaneous Equations Methods

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 563-569
The control function approach is a convenient method of estimation in simultaneous equation systems. This requires that the system can be expressed in triangular form with variables satisfying a conditional mean independence restriction. Linear simultaneous models with additive errors can always be expressed in this form. However, in nonlinear nonadditive simultaneous systems, conditional independence requires a strong additional restriction known as control function separability. We argue that nonadditive models are a key characteristic of simultaneous models of economic behavior with unobserved heterogeneity. We review alternative “system” approaches and document the biases that occur when the control function approach is used inappropriately.