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Beliefs-driven price association

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2016 61(2-3), 563-583
In addition to being a function of traditional fundamentals such as cash-flow persistence and the discount rate, the equilibrium association between a security price and a value-relevant statistic can simply be a function of what rational investors believe the association will be. We refer to this phenomenon as beliefs-driven price association (BPA). By explicitly considering the phenomenon of BPA, we show that the price response to information releases can vary over time even if the risk-free interest rate and investor preferences are static and the earnings/cash flow generating process is stable. This observation suggests, for example, that price-to-earnings associations and price volatility can vary over time even if a stable pattern of economic fundamentals suggests otherwise. The possibility of BPA suggests that measures of the cost of capital, information content, and growth prospects inferred from observed market prices will be confounded. While we do not predict when periods of BPA will arise, we provide empirically testable predictions about how prices should behave during periods of BPA. In particular, we predict that, during sufficiently long periods of high (positive or negative) BPA, price volatility, price levels, and expected returns will be higher than would be implied by a fundamental valuation framework. Finally, while BPA in the pricing of one security does not cause BPA in the pricing of other securities, the price levels of those other securities will be affected if the securities with BPA are sufficiently large relative to the market as a whole.

Commitment and Cost of Equity Capital: An Examination of Timely Balance Sheet Disclosure in Earnings Announcements

Contemporary Accounting Research 2016 33(3), 1136-1171
In this paper, I examine the relation between disclosure commitment and cost of equity capital using accelerated earnings announcement disclosures as a measure of commitment. In settings characterized by imperfect market competition, I find that firms which consistently disclose balance sheet detail in relatively timely earnings announcements have lower costs of capital compared to other firms. This result is statistically significant and economically meaningful, and is robust to various alternative measurements for cost of capital, and alternative designs addressing endogeneity and underlying information quality. Overall, this result is important because it highlights additional dimensions of disclosure commitment (consistency and timeliness), while incorporating important features from theoretical models (information quality and market competition). In particular, my results suggest that consistency and timeliness are salient features of firms' disclosure behavior that have predictable and robust relations with capital market outcomes. This result is robust to controlling for underlying information quality; however, consistent with theory, it is conditional on low levels of market competition.

The Share Repurchase Announcement Puzzle: Theory and Evidence

Review of Finance 2016 20(2), 725-758 open access
Why is the mere announcement of an open-market share repurchase program, which involves no commitment to purchase shares, regarded as good news by the market? We develop a theoretical model to resolve this puzzle. The model predicts that firms with large underpricing can attract attention from speculators by announcing repurchases, and the subsequent trades from these speculators lead to value corrections. Firms with small underpricing, however, cannot attract attention by announcing repurchases, and these firms have to use costly share repurchases as a value-correcting signal. We then provide empirical evidence corroborating the predictions of the theoretical model.

The effects of takeover defenses: Evidence from closed-end funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2016 119(2), 420-440 open access
I use a sample of closed-end funds to examine how takeover defenses impact shareholder value and promote managerial entrenchment. These funds use the same defenses as general corporations but provide an ideal, homogeneous environment for testing their effects. Defenses are associated with lower fund market values, weaker reactions to activist 13D filings, and higher compensation levels for both fund managers and directors. This study provides greater clarity on the unresolved impact of takeover defenses on firm value, while showing for the first time that directors, who are responsible for adopting takeover defenses, financially benefit from their use.

Revisiting Mutual Fund Portfolio Disclosure

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(12), 3519-3544
We document that CRSP and Thomson contain many voluntarily reported mutual fund portfolios that are not in SEC filings while, additionally, CRSP and Thomson are missing many SEC mandated portfolios available in SEC filings. We document that the voluntary disclosures are likely driven by convenience rather than duplicity. Although mandated portfolios contain securities with more return momentum, we find use of SEC or Thomson data lead to similar empirical findings. CRSP, however, contains inaccurate position information prior to 2008. Our findings have important implications, such as highlighting a 35% increase in observed manager trading by combining data sources.

Productivity and Quality in Health Care: Evidence from the Dialysis Industry

Review of Economic Studies 2016 84(3), rdw042
We show that healthcare providers face a tradeoff between increasing the number of patients they treat and improving their quality of care. To measure the magnitude of this quality-quantity tradeoff, we estimate a model of dialysis provision that explicitly incorporates a centre’s unobservable and endogenous choice of treatment quality while allowing for unobserved differences in productivity across centres. We find that a centre that reduces its quality standards such that its expected rate of septic infections increases by 1 percentage point can increase its patient load by 1.6%, holding productivity, capital, and labour fixed; this corresponds to an elasticity of quantity with respect to quality of -0.2. Notably, our approach provides estimates of productivity that control for differences in quality, whereas traditional methods would misattribute lower-quality care to greater productivity.

Equality of Opportunity: Theory and Measurement

Journal of Economic Literature 2016 54(4), 1288-1332 open access
During the last third of the twentieth century, political philosophers actively debated about the content of distributive justice; the ruling ethical view of utilitarianism was challenged by various versions of equality of opportunities. Economists formulated several ways of modeling these ideas, focusing upon how individuals are placed with respect to opportunities for achieving various outcomes, and what compensation is due to individuals with truncated opportunities. After presenting a review of the main philosophical ideas (section 2), we turn to economic models (sections 3 and 4). We propose a reformulation of the definition of economic development, replacing the utilitarian measure of GDP per capita with a measure of the degree to which opportunities for income acquisition in a nation have been equalized. Finally, we discuss issues that the econometrician faces in measuring inequality of opportunity, briefly review the empirical literature (section 6), and conclude (section 7). (JEL C43, D63, D70, I24)

Teacher Quality in Public and Private Schools under a Voucher System: The Case of Chile

Journal of Labor Economics 2016 34(2), 319-362 open access
Chile is unusual in having long-term experience with nationwide school vouchers. A key criticism of school voucher systems is that they make it easier for private schools to attract better teachers to the detriment of public schools. This paper uses longitudinal data from Chile to estimate a discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) model of teacher and nonteacher labor supply decisions and to explore how wage policies affect the composition of the teacher labor force in public and private schools. In the model, individuals first decide whether to get a teaching degree and then choose annually from among five work/home sector alternatives. Empirical results show that private voucher schools attract better teachers than public schools. However, the existence of the private voucher sector also draws higher-productivity individuals into the teaching profession.