This paper reviews the economic literature on welfare reform over the 1990s. A brief summary of the policy changes is followed by a discussion of the methodological techniques that analyze the effects of these changes on outcomes. The paper then critically reviews the econometric and experimental literature on caseload changes, labor force changes, poverty and income changes, and family formation changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that recent policy changes have influenced economic behavior and well-being. One particular set of "new-style" welfare programs seems to show especially promising results, with significantly increased work and earnings and reduced poverty.

This paper reviews the economics literature on welfare reform over the 1990s. A brief summary of the policy changes over this period is followed by a discussion of the methodological techniques utilized to analyze the effects of these changes on outcomes. The paper then critically reviews the econometric and experimental literature on caseload changes, labor force changes, poverty and income changes, and family formation changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that the recent policy changes have influenced economic behavior and well-being in a variety of ways. One particular set of "new-style" welfare programs seems to show especially promising results, with significantly increased work and earnings and reduced poverty.

Firms that go public produce information that influences the production decisions of their rivals as well as their own production decisions. If information-production costs are borne primarily by pioneering firms, market failures can occur in which both pioneers and followers remain private and make ill-informed investment decisions. Solving this coordination problem requires a transfer between pioneers and followers that leads to a more equitable distribution of information-production costs. We contend that investment banks can enforce such a transfer by effectively bundling IPOs within an industry. This suggests an explanation for clustering of IPOs through time and within industries. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G24, G28, K32.

Public opinion surveys uniformly show low support for medical-care systems in developed countries. The longstanding conflict between equal access to care and efficient service provision partly explains this dissatisfaction. But the trade-off is particularly acute in medical care, as new technologies developed over time have increased the cost of care and made the equity commitment even more expensive. Countries first dealt with rising costs by maintaining equal access and restricting total spending. Efficiency suffered, however. As a result, many countries are considering a move away from spending controls and toward incentive-based medical-care reform.

Many people believe in the "Law of Small Numbers," exaggerating the degree to which a small sample resembles the population from which it is drawn. To model this, I assume that a person exaggerates the likelihood that a short sequence of i.i.d. signals resembles the long-run rate at which those signals are generated. Such a person believes in the "gambler's fallacy", thinking early draws of one signal increase the odds of next drawing other signals. When uncertain about the rate, the person over-infers from short sequences of signals, and is prone to think the rate is more extreme than it is. When the person makes inferences about the frequency at which rates are generated by different sources --- such as the distribution of talent among financial analysts --- based on few observations from each source, he tends to exaggerate how much variance there is in the rates. Hence, the model predicts that people may pay for financial advice from "experts" whose expertise is entirely ...

This article examines whether country-specific or global versions of Fama and French's three-factor model better explain time-series variation in international stock returns. Regressions for portfolios and individual stocks indicate that domestic factor models explain much more time-series variation in returns and generally have lower pricing errors than the world factor model. In addition, decomposing the world factors into domestic and foreign components demonstrates that the addition of foreign factors to domestic models leads to less accurate in-sample and out-of-sample pricing. Practical applications of the three-factor model, such as cost of capital calculations and performance evaluations, are best performed on a country-specific basis.

How should the tax rate and the level of public debt adjust to an adverse fiscal shock? What is the optimal maturity structure of public debt? If the maturity structure is carefully chosen, the ex post variation in the market value of public debt can cover the government against the need to raise taxes or debt if fiscal conditions should turn bad. In general, almost every Arrow-Debreu allocation can be implemented with noncontingent debt of different maturities. In a stylized example, the optimal policy is implemented by selling a perpetuity and investing in a short-term asset.

We examine how the intrinsic differences between U.S. and non-U.S. stocks affect market participants and the market quality of non-U.S. stocks relative to U.S. stocks. Using proprietary data on NYSE specialist trading, we find that, all else equal, specialist closing inventory positions for non-U.S. stocks are closer to zero than U.S. stocks. The evidence on specialist participation and stabilization rates is mixed. Non-U.S. stocks from developed markets have higher specialist participation and stabilization rates than U.S. stocks, while emerging market stocks have lower participation and stabilization rates than U.S. stocks. With respect to market quality, we find that, all else equal, non-U.S. stocks have wider spreads, less depth, and greater transitory volatility than U.S. stocks. We investigate the reasons behind the difference in liquidity and find that the larger non-U.S. spreads are primarily due to higher information asymmetry and increased adverse selection risk. We conclude that liquidity providers demand greater compensation for trading non-U.S. stocks, but this additional compensation is necessary to offset the higher adverse selection risk.