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The Gains from Pension Reform

Journal of Economic Literature 2003
We classify social security pension systems in three dimensions: actuarial versus non-actuarial, funded versus unfunded, and defined-benefit versus defined-contribution systems. Recent pension reforms are discussed in terms of these dimensions. Shifting to a more actuarial system reduces labor-market distortions, although limiting the scope for redistribution. Shifting to a funded system may increase saving, redistribute income to future generations and distort contemporary labor supply. A partial shift to a funded system helps individuals diversify their pension assets. A shift from a defined-benefit to a defined-contribution system means that income risk will be shifted from workers to pensioners.

The Gains from Pension Reform

Journal of Economic Literature 2003 41(1), 74-112 open access
We characterize pension systems along three dimensions: 1) actuarial vs. non-actuarial, 2) funded vs. pay-as-you-go, 3) defined-contribution vs. defined-benefit. Increasing the degree of actuarial fairness, by strengthening the linkage between contributions and benefits, reduces labor market distortions and may increase welfare in a Pareto-efficiency sense. Increasing the degree of funding implies mainly a redistribution of income among generations, although a partial shift to funding also provides better risk-return combinations for individuals. Shifting from defined-benefit to defined-contribution schemes (with fixed contribution rates) shifts the income risk from workers and taxpayers to pensioners.

Social Norms in Social Insurance

Journal of Political Economy 2018 126(S1), S116-S139
We analyze how insurance arrangements, labor supply, moral hazard, and outright cheating are affected by social norms. One question is under what conditions norms may improve social welfare. Another is under what conditions people should be allowed to opt out of social insurance. We introduce an informal production sector to analyze the consequences of alternative assumptions about the information available to norm enforcers. This highlights one important aspect of norms, namely, that they may compensate for the insurer’s limited information.

The Effects on Sick Leave of Changes in the Sickness Insurance System

Journal of Labor Economics 2004 22(1), 87-113 open access
To get a more complete picture of how labor supply is affected by economic incentives, the effects on absenteeism should be taken into account. In particular, absenteeism due to sick leave can be considerable. We examine whether the level of sick leave compensation affects sick leave behavior. Using long time series data (1955–99) for Sweden with numerous changes of the compensation level, we generally find strong effects. Reforms implying more generous compensation for sick leave tend to be associated with permanent increases in sick leave, and vice versa. These findings are reinforced in a panel study covering the 1983–91 period.

Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution

Econometrica 2006 74(1), 193-212 open access
This paper demonstrates how time consistency of the Ramsey policy -the optimal fiscal and monetary policy under commitment -can be achieved. Each government should leave its successor with a unique maturity structure for the nominal and indexed debt, such that the marginal benefit of a surprise inflation exactly balances the marginal cost. Unlike in earlier papers on the topic, the result holds for quite a general Ramsey policy, including timevarying polices with positive inflation and positive nominal interest rates.

Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Econometrica 1987 55(6), 1419 open access
This paper demonstrates how time consistency of the Ramsey policy–the optimal fiscal and monetary policy under commitment–can be achieved. Each government should leave its successor with a unique maturity structure for the nominal and indexed debt, such that the marginal benefit of a surprise inflation exactly balances the marginal cost. Unlike in earlier papers on the topic, the result holds for quite general Ramsey policies, including timevarying polices with positive inflation and positive nominal interest rates. We compare our results with

The Swedish Experiment

Journal of Economic Literature 1997
The deterioration of economic performance in Sweden from about 1970 was to some extent result of a number of exogenous shocks and unnecessary policy mistakes. It was, however, also related to basic changes in economic and social system in Sweden in late 1960s and early 1970, when government spending, taxes, and regulations started to expand dramatically. It is also argued in paper that problematic political, economic, and social mechanisms had become embedded in long-term dynamics of system itself. These various experiences are background for recent reforms and retreats of the Swedish experiment.