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3 results

Life Earnings and Rural‐Urban Migration

Journal of Political Economy 2004 112(S1), S29-S59 open access
This paper is a theoretical study of rural‐urban migration—urbanization—as it has occurred in many low‐income economies in the postwar period. This process is viewed as a transfer of labor from a traditional, land‐intensive technology to a human capital–intensive technology with an unending potential for growth. The model emphasizes the role of cities as places in which new immigrants can accumulate the skills required by modern production technologies.

Inflation and Welfare

Econometrica 2000 68(2), 247-274
This paper surveys research on the welfare cost of inflation. New estimates are provided, based on U.S. time series for 1900–94, interpreted in a variety of ways. It is estimated that the gain from reducing the annual inflation rate from 10 percent to zero is equivalent to an increase in real income of slightly less than one percent. Using aggregate evidence only, it may not be possible to estimate reliably the gains from reducing inflation further, to a rate consistent with zero nominal interest.

Menu Costs and Phillips Curves

Journal of Political Economy 2007 115(2), 171-199 open access
This paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation. Sellers can change price only by incurring a real “menu cost.†We calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new U.S. data set of individual prices due to Klenow and Kryvtsov. The prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies. The model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy’s response to various shocks. In none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses.