We examine the profitability of a trading strategy which is based on a logit model designed to predict the sign of subsequent twelve-month excess returns from accounting ratios. Over the 1978–1988 period, the average annual excess return produced by the trading strategy ranges between 4.3% and 9.5%, depending on the specific measure of excess return and weighting scheme involved. However, our implementation of the Ou and Penman (1989) trading strategy in the 1978–1988 period, which is based on a logit model that predicts subsequent unexpected earnings- per-share from accounting ratios, does not earn excess returns.

This paper examines daily excess bond returns associated with announcements of additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List, and to rating changes by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Reliably nonzero average excess bond returns are observed for additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List when an expectations model is used to classify additions as either expected or unexpected. Bond price effects are also observed for actual downgrade and upgrade announcements by rating agencies. Excluding announcements with concurrent disclosures weakens the results for downgrades, but not upgrades. The stock price effects of rating agency announcements are also examined and contrasted with the bond price effects.

This paper examines daily excess bond returns associated with announcements of additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List, and to rating changes by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Reliably nonzero average excess bond returns are observed for additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List when an expectations model is used to classify additions as either expected or unexpected. Bond price effects are also observed for actual downgrade and upgrade announcements by rating agencies. Excluding announcements with concurrent disclosures weakens the results for downgrades, but not upgrades. The stock price effects of rating agency announcements are also examined and contrasted with the bond price effects.