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Measuring the Bias of Technological Change

Journal of Political Economy 2018 126(3), 1027-1084
Technological change can increase the productivity of the various factors of production in equal terms, or it can be biased toward a specific factor. We directly assess the bias of technological change by measuring, at the level of the individual firm, how much of it is labor augmenting and how much is factor neutral. To do so, we develop a framework for estimating production functions when productivity is multidimensional. Using panel data from Spain, we find that technological change is biased, with both its labor-augmenting and its factor-neutral components causing output to grow by about 1.5 percent per year.

Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market

American Economic Review 2018 108(3), 565-615
We document the evolution of the new market for frequency response within the UK electricity system over a six-year period. Firms competed in price while facing considerable initial uncertainty about demand and rival behavior. We show that prices stabilized over time, converging to a rest point that is consistent with equilibrium play. We draw on models of fictitious play and adaptive learning to analyze how this convergence occurs and show that these models predict behavior better than an equilibrium model prior to convergence.