Robert Mendelsohn of Yale School of the Environment, Department of Economics, and Yale School of Management reviews “Climate Future: Averting and Adapting to Climate Change” by Robert S. Pindyck. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Explores the extent and nature of the uncertainty of climate change's impact on the economy and society, promoting the argument that climate policy should focus on adaptation in preparation for the unlikelihood of sufficiently reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Exploiting the unique features of the CDP, the world-leading platform of corporate climate risk disclosures, we study the relationship between institutional investors' demand for climate-related information (as reflected in their CDP signatory status), firms' decision to disclose this information, and corporate carbon emissions. We provide systematic international evidence that ownership by CDP signatories is positively associated with the probability of disclosing information to the CDP, and that such disclosure is associated with subsequent lower carbon emissions. We also observe that CDP signatories are more likely to engage with and divest from top emitters disclosing to the CDP. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion that investor demand for climate-related information results in greater corporate disclosure and contributes to firms’ decisions to lower future carbon emissions.

We develop a method that identifies the attention paid by earnings call participants to firms' climate change exposures. The method adapts a machine learning keyword discovery algorithm and captures exposures related to opportunity, physical, and regulatory shocks associated with climate change. The measures are available for more than 10,000 firms from 34 countries between 2002 and 2020. We show that the measures are useful in predicting important real outcomes related to the net‐zero transition, in particular, job creation in disruptive green technologies and green patenting, and that they contain information that is priced in options and equity markets.

This article studies how innovation reacts to climate change and shapes its economic impacts, focusing on U.S. agriculture. We show in a model that directed innovation can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change’s potential economic damage depending on the substitutability between new technology and favorable climatic conditions. To empirically investigate the technological response to climate change, we measure crop-specific exposure to damaging extreme temperatures and crop-specific innovation embodied in new variety releases and patents. We find that innovation has redirected since the mid-twentieth century toward crops with increasing exposure to extreme temperatures. Moreover, this effect is driven by types of agricultural technology most related to environmental adaptation. We next show that U.S. counties’ exposure to induced innovation significantly dampens the local economic damage from extreme temperatures. Combining these estimates with the model, we find that directed innovation has offset 20% of potential losses in U.S. agricultural land value due to damaging climate trends since 1960 and that innovation could offset 13% of projected damage by 2100. These findings highlight the vital importance, but incomplete effectiveness, of endogenous technological change as a source of adaptation to climate change.

Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substantially boosts estimates of the social cost of carbon and supports a climate policy with stronger carbon mitigation strategies.

This paper summarizes and discusses Cohen et al. (2023), including how their results fit into a larger set of open questions about how sustainability-oriented information gets used in capital markets. Two key messages emerge. The first is that investors are not a monolith. The second message is that the information environment in which investors have been operating has changed dramatically over the past two decades and is likely to continue to evolve for the foreseeable future. Both messages have important implications for researchers when thinking about how to design empirical tests of theoretical relationships.