Each of 2 Universities-National Bureau of Economic Research Conferences on demographic economics held in 1958 and in 1976 resulted in a volume of essays with great significance for those working in demographic economics. Both are discussed for the 2 sets of essays do much to illustrate what the subdiscipline is doing and neglecting. The 1st dealt nominally with more developed countries and the 2nd purportedly with less developed countries. During the 1st period the dominant idea was neo-Malthusian with emphasis on demographic performance as a consequence of economic progress although in which direction (more children and sooner or fewer children and later) was in part a matter of choosing between the Becker/Mincer formulation of opportunity costs of parenthood and the Easterlin formulation of satisfaction with oneself or alternatively a fear that prosperity was effectively bounded. The book of the 2nd conference includes 9 essays plus a brief introduction by the editor. Each of these essays is reviewed briefly. What is most impressive about this volume are the preferences for the Iron Law of Wages/neo-Malthusian approach -- economic progress leads to demographic response and not the other way around.

NANCY STOKEY AND ROBERT LUCAS, JR., and Ed Prescott have produced an exceptionally useful, thorough, and timely introduction to stochastic economic dynamics. Dynamic optimization techniques developed in Operations Research, formulated initially by Richard Bellman (1957), have been used extensively in economics, particularly in macroeconomics, finance, and public finance. Economic theorists have extended dynamic programming theory in several valuable directions. Of particular note for this book is the concept of recursive equilibrium introduced in Edward Prescott and Rajnish Mehra (1980). While these techniques have been used extensively, there has been no broad, unified, and comprehensive presentation of the concepts, tools, and applications of recursive dynamic techniques that is written for economists and demands no more mathematics than a typical student is exposed to in a good graduate program. This book succeeds marvelously in filling this need. Furthermore, given the depth of development, it is also a valuable reference for researchers. Before describing the book's contents in detail, we should discuss what is distinctive and important about the recursive approach to dynamic economic problems. To do this, let's examine a simple problem and an alternative approach to its solution. The canonical problem for economic dynamics is the infinite horizon deterministic growth problem. Let k, be the capital stock at the beginning of period t, f(kt) a neoclassical production function expressing period t production as a function of kt, ct consumption in period t chosen at the end of the period, u(c) a concave utility function, and I the discount factor. Then a social planner for this infinitely lived economy will solve the problem

Loss aversion is one of the most widely used concepts in behavioral economics. We conduct a large-scale, interdisciplinary meta-analysis to systematically accumulate knowledge from numerous empirical estimates of the loss aversion coefficient reported from 1992 to 2017. We examine 607 empirical estimates of loss aversion from 150 articles in economics, psychology, neuroscience, and several other disciplines. Our analysis indicates that the mean loss aversion coefficient is 1.955 with a 95 percent probability that the true value falls in the interval [1.820, 2.102]. We record several observable characteristics of the study designs. Few characteristics are substantially correlated with differences in the mean estimates. (JEL D81, D91)

I assess time-series return predictability using a weighted least squares estimator that is around 25% more efficient than ordinary least squares (OLS) because it incorporates timevarying volatility into its point estimates. Traditional predictors, such as the dividend yield, perform better in-and out-of-sample when using my estimator, indicating the insignificant OLS estimates may be false negatives driven by a lack of power. Some newer predictors, such as the variance risk premium and the president's political party, are insignificant when using my estimator, indicating the significant OLS estimates may be false positives driven by a few periods with high expected volatility. (JEL G10, G11, G12)

This study is the first to link managerial turnover to mutual fund managerial structure in a manner that indicates the strong presence of a conflict of interests between investors and fund sponsors in an area of fund governance where we have been led to believe there are strong and well-functioning mechanisms to guard against the exploitation of investors. I utilize the unique characteristics of mutual funds where managers sometimes manage multiple “firms” simultaneously, something not generally observed in industrial firms. I test the governance mechanisms using the mutual fund complexes management structure; unitary and multiple fund management (UFM and MFM). This study shows that UFMs tend to have higher asset growth rates and higher fees than MFMs, suggesting that sponsors can benefit more from keeping them intact. I find that changing managers under the UFM is more costly to sponsors making them more reluctant to fire poor performers. I document that underperforming UFM are −2.77% less likely to be replaced than their underperforming MFM counterparts. In addition, the conflict of interests affect the replacement decision, as high expense ratio fund managers have a lower probability of replacement for a given level of underperformance.

This paper investigates the relationship between a firm′s loan commitment demand and its overall capital structure. I develop a model which demonstrates that a loan commitment leads a firm to higher privately optimal debt level and a lower cost of debt funds; these results are driven by the loan commitment′s ability to attenuate the potential moral hazard problems attendant upon debt financing. I confront the predictions with cross-sectional data, and find that the availability of unused loan commitment financing is positively related to firm leverage and negatively related to cost of debt funds. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D82, G21, G32.

Abstract Using euro conversion as the trigger, we examine what drives volume and spread changes when stock exchanges compete. Results show average trading costs on European exchanges decrease almost 9%, and turnover increases over 30%. Trading costs decline or remain unchanged on all exchanges, but volume deteriorates in some markets and improves in others. Frankfurt, Paris, London, and Milan are winners, while Madrid and Brussels lose volume. We examine the role of the spread-volume relation, firm characteristics, exchange trading rules, and country-level factors in determining these outcomes. Results suggest that euro conversion prompted competition by increasing transparency in market prices.

A structural econometric model of retirement of dual-career couples is specified and estimated with panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women. A coincidence of spouses retiring together, despite the younger ages of wives, suggests explicit efforts at coordination. The estimates suggest that one reason is a correlation of tastes for leisure. More important, each spouse, and perhaps husbands in particular, values retirement more once their spouse has retired. The opportunity set accounts for peaks in the retirement hazards of each spouse individually, but not for peaks in the simultaneous retirement of both spouses. Copyright 2000 by University of Chicago Press.

This article formulates a general equilibrium model for analyzing the youth labor market. At the heart of the model is an interplay between a labor force with heterogeneous ability levels and a minimum wage restriction. Ability affects performance on skilled jobs and, to a lesser extent, on unskilled jobs. Workers are less productive as youths than as adults. The model is applied to rationalize several results from available studies and to analyze the effects of three representative policies: a youth subminimum wage, subsidies paid to firms that hire youths, and subsidies that offset the costs of on-the-job training.

A structural life-cycle retirement model with an improved specification over previous models is used to analyze and compare the long-run effects on the labor supply of older workers of the 1983 Social Security reforms. The effects of separate provisions from the 1983 amendments are examined. These include the raising of the normal retirement age to 67, the increase in the delayed retirement credit to 8%, and the lowering of the reduction rate for earnings over the test amount to $1.00 for every $3.00 of earnings.