Knowledge that Transforms

We examine the role of information from the options market in forecasting the equity premium. We provide evidence that the equity premium is predictable out-of-sample using a set of CBOE strategy benchmark indices as predictors. We use a range of econometric approaches to generate point, quantile, and density forecasts of the equity premium. We find that models based on option variables consistently outperform the historical average benchmark. In addition to statistical gains, using option predictors results in substantial economic benefits for a mean–variance investor, delivering up to a fivefold increase in certainty equivalent returns over the benchmark during the 1996–2021 sample period.

The long-run underperformance of initial public offerings (IPOs) suggests that aftermarket prices are overvalued. According to the theory of heterogeneous beliefs and short-sale constraints, the aftermarket price of IPOs is overvalued; in addition, their performance deteriorates when the mean level of optimism and degree of divergence of investors’ opinions increase. I examine this phenomenon by estimating the mean and divergence of investor opinion distribution by focusing on Japanese auction-method IPOs. According to the results, both optimism and divergence cause the overvaluation of IPO’s first-day market price; however, only the mean level of optimism is statistically significant in explaining post-IPO underperformance.

Exploiting information transmission latency between stock exchanges in Frankfurt and London, and speed-inducing technological upgrades, we show that when cross-market latency arbitrage opportunities are linked to the arrival of information, high-frequency traders' (HFTs’) activities impair liquidity and enhance price discovery by facilitating the incorporation of public information into prices. Conversely, when cross-market latency arbitrage opportunities are driven by liquidity shocks, HFTs improve liquidity and reduce trading costs, thus incentivizing information acquisition and trading with private information. These findings underscore the complex nature of the association between trading speed and market quality and reconcile mixed evidence in the extant literature.