The specification of a statistical distribution which accurately models the behavior of stock returns continues to be a salient issue in financial economics. With the introduction of arithmetic and geometric Brownian motion models, much attention has recently focused on a Poisson mixture of distributions as an appropriate specification of stock returns. For example, see [12], [3], [8], [10], [5], and [1]. Consistent with empirical evidence, these models yield leptokurtic security return distributions and, furthermore, the specification has much economic intuition. In particular, one may always decompose the total change in stock price into “normal” and “abnormal” components. The “normal” change may be due to variation in capitalization rates, a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, or the receipt of any other information which causes marginal price changes. This component is modelled as a lognormal diffusion process. The “abnormal” change is due to the receipt of any information which causes a more than marginal change in the price of the stock and is usually modeled as a Poisson process.

This paper provides a closed-form, preference-free means of valuing a European call option written on a default-free pure discount bond. Investors may not agree upon a theory of the term structure, but they will necessarily agree on equilibrium option values. Further, these equilibrium option values may be obtained without recourse to numerical approximation.Default-free pure discount bond prices were posited to follow a non-standardized transformed Brownian bridge process. This specification implicitly incorporates the terminal constraint that the price of a default-free pure discount bond equal its face value at maturity.Contingent claim valuation necessarily involves consideration of terminal constraints on the value of financial securities. The Brownian bridge specification permits an appropriate means of incorporating a number of such constraints. Therefore, while this paper has considered only the application of the Brownian bridge process to the valuation of debt options, the introduction of this process may provide for many further financial applications.

Relying on a simple general equilibrium model of the term structure, we show that both nominal yields and real consumption growth rates can be affine in the unobservable state variables. We can then express real consumption growth rates in terms of nominal yields rather than the unobservable state variables with the coefficients of the resultant forecasting relation being endogenously determined by the term structure model. Using term structure data over the 1985 to 2000 sample period, the empirical evidence is consistent with our model more accurately predicting real consumption growth rates than a regression model based on the term spread.