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The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005 87(3), 423-438 open access
The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Others (e.g., This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history.