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Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures

American Economic Review 2010 100(1), 518-540 open access
In order to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements and that our currency measures have high explanatory power for the valuation term in net foreign asset dynamics. Exchange rate valuation shocks are sizable, not quickly reversed, and may entail substantial wealth redistributions. Further, we show that many developing countries have substantially reduced their negative foreign currency positions over the last decade. (F31, F32, G15)

The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005 87(3), 423-438 open access
The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Others (e.g., This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history.