Knowledge that Transforms

We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the twentieth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation of the Bretton Woods Agreements in 1951 and from Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of Volcker's disinflation in 1983.

This paper uses administrative longitudinal microdata on junior high school students in Uruguay to measure the effect of grade failure on students' subsequent school outcomes. Exploiting the discontinuity induced by a rule establishing automatic grade failure for pupils with more than three failed subjects, I show that grade failure leads to substantial dropout and lower educational attainment even four to five years after grade failure occurred.

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major U.S. dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.

This paper exploits variation in the timing and outcomes of employment discrimination lawsuits against U.S. law enforcement agencies to estimate the cumulative and persistent employment effects of temporary externally imposed affirmative action (AA). We find that AA increased black employment at all ranks by 4.5 to 6.2 percentage points relative to national trends. We also find no erosion of these employment gains in the fifteen years following AA termination, although black employment growth was significantly lower in departments after AA ended than in departments whose plans continued. For women, in contrast, we find only marginal employment gains at lower ranks.

In 2003, after claims of dumping, the United States imposed heavy tariffs on Vietnamese catfish, which led to a collapse of imports. We use panel data to explore household responses in the catfish-producing Mekong delta between 2002 and 2004 and find that income growth was significantly slower among households relatively more involved in catfish farming in 2002. This is explained by a relative decline in both catfish income and revenues from other miscellaneous farm activities. Labor supply did not adjust, most likely because of off-farm employment limitations. Households more exposed to the shock reduced the share of investment assigned to catfish while substituting into agriculture.

Two of the most robust results from dynamic competitive models of industrial organization suggest that higher-sunk-cost industries should exhibit higher intertemporal variability in the market value of their firms and lower intertemporal variability in the size of their industries. These predictions have done well empirically. This paper argues on theoretical and empirical grounds that depreciation generates countervailing effects.

We exploit increases in postpartum length of stay generated by legislative changes in the late 1990s to identify the impact of greater hospital care on the health of newborns. Using all births in California over the 1995–2000 period, two-stage least-square estimates show that increased treatment intensity had a modest impact on readmission probabilities for the average newborn. Allowing the treatment effect to vary by two objective measures of medical need demonstrates that the law had large impacts for those with the greatest likelihood of a readmission. The results suggest that the returns to average and marginal patients vary considerably in this context.

This paper presents an alternative method to derive the limiting distribution of residual-based statistics. Our method does not impose an explicit assumption of (asymptotic) smoothness of the statistic of interest with respect to the model's parameters and thus is especially useful in cases where such smoothness is difficult to establish. Instead, we use a locally uniform convergence in distribution condition, which is automatically satisfied by residual-based specification test statistics. To illustrate, we derive the limiting distribution of a new functional form specification test for discrete choice models, as well as a runs-based tests for conditional symmetry in dynamic volatility models.

We derive Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio specification tests for the null hypotheses of multivariate normal and Student-t innovations using the generalized hyperbolic distribution as our alternative hypothesis. We decompose the corresponding Lagrange multiplier-type tests into skewness and kurtosis components. We also obtain more powerful one-sided Kuhn-Tucker versions that are equivalent to the likelihood ratio test, whose asymptotic distribution we provide. Finally, we conduct detailed Monte Carlo exercises to study the size and power properties of our proposed tests in finite samples.