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Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India

Econometrica 2023 91(1), 67-106 open access
We show that foreign capital liberalization reduces capital misallocation and increases aggregate productivity for affected industries in India. The staggered liberalization of access to foreign capital across disaggregated industries allows us to identify changes in firms' input wedges, overcoming major challenges in the measurement of the effects of changing misallocation. Liberalization increases capital overall. For domestic firms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK), liberalization increases revenues by 23%, physical capital by 53%, wage bills by 28%, and reduces MRPK by 33% relative to low MRPK firms. The effects of liberalization are largest in areas with less developed local banking sectors, indicating that inefficiencies in that sector may cause misallocation. Finally, we propose an assumption under which a novel method exploiting natural experiments can be used to bound the effect of changes in misallocation on treated industries' aggregate productivity. These industries' Solow residual increases by 3–16%.

Where Has All the Data Gone?

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(7), 3101-3138 open access
Since the finance industry is transforming into a data industry, measuring the quantity of data investors have about various assets is important. Informed by a structural model, we develop such a cross-sectional measure. We show how our measure differs from price informativeness and use it to document a new fact: data about large high-growth firms is becoming increasingly abundant, relative to data about other firms. Our structural model offers an explanation for this data divergence: large high-growth firms’ data became more valuable, as big firms got bigger and growth magnified the effect of these changes in size.

Noisy Stock Prices and Corporate Investment

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(7), 2625-2672
Firms significantly reduce their investment in response to nonfundamental drops in the stock price of their product-market peers. We argue that this results stems from managers’ limited ability to filter out the noise in the stock prices when using them as signals about their investment opportunities. Ensuing losses of capital investment and shareholders’ wealth are economically large and even affect firms not facing severe financing constraints or agency problems. Our findings offer a novel perspective on how stock market inefficiencies can affect the real economy, even in the absence of financing or agency frictions.Received December 14, 2016; editorial decision July 30, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.