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A new measure of cross-sectional risk and its empirical implications for portfolio risk management

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(8), 2387-2408
Litterman et al. [Litterman, R., Scheinkman, J., Weiss, L., 1991. Volatility and the yield curve. Journal of Fixed Income 1 (June), 49–53] and Engle and Ng [Engle, R.F., Ng, V.K., 1993. Time-varying volatility and the dynamic behavior of the term structure. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 25(3), 336–349] provide empirical evidence of a relation between yield curve shape and volatility. This study offers theoretical support for that finding in the general context of cross-sectional time series. We introduce a new risk measure quantifying the link between cross-sectional shape and market risk. A simple econometric procedure allows us to represent the risk experienced by cross-sections over a time period in terms of independent factors reproducing possible cross-sectional deformations. We compare our risk measure to the traditional cross-yield covariance according to their relative performance. Empirical investigation in the US interest rate market shows that (1) cross-shape risk factors outperform cross-yield risk factors (i.e., yield curve level, slope, and convexity) in explaining the market risk of yield curve dynamics; (2) hedging multiple liabilities against cross-shape risk delivers superior trading strategies compared to those stemming from cross-yield risk management.

Analytical pricing of discretely monitored Asian-style options: Theory and application to commodity markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(10), 2033-2045
We compute an analytical expression for the moment generating function of the joint random vector consisting of a spot price and its discretely monitored average for a large class of square-root price dynamics. This result, combined with the Fourier transform pricing method proposed by Carr and Madan [Carr, P., Madan D., 1999. Option valuation using the fast Fourier transform. Journal of Computational Finance 2(4), Summer, 61–73] allows us to derive a closed-form formula for the fair value of discretely monitored Asian-style options. Our analysis encompasses the case of commodity price dynamics displaying mean reversion and jointly fitting a quoted futures curve and the seasonal structure of spot price volatility. Four tests are conducted to assess the relative performance of the pricing procedure stemming from our formulae. Empirical results based on natural gas data from NYMEX and corn data from CBOT show a remarkable improvement over the main alternative techniques developed for pricing Asian-style options within the market standard framework of geometric Brownian motion.