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World War II and Black Economic Progress

Journal of Labor Economics 2022 40(4), 1053-1091
During the 1940s, a substantial share of southern Black men moved from low-skilled to much better paying semiskilled jobs. Using newly digitized military data, I show that counties with higher World War II casualty rates among semiskilled White soldiers saw an increase in the share of semiskilled Black workers. These deaths opened new employment opportunities for Black southerners and, together with learning effects by employers, can explain 35% of the occupational upgrading at mid-century. I provide evidence that the casualty-induced labor shortages reduced racial barriers to entry, leading to a positive selection of Black workers into semiskilled employment.

Discrimination, Migration, and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from World War I

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(5), 1201-1219
This paper examines the individual and aggregate costs of ethnic discrimination. Studying Germans in the United States during World War I, an event that abruptly downgraded their previously high social standing, we show that anti-German sentiment was strongly associated with counties’ casualties in the war, leading to subsequent outmigration of Germans. Such relocation to evade discrimination was costly for German workers. However, counties with larger outflows of Germans, who tended to be well-trained manufacturing workers, incurred economic costs too, including a drop in average annual manufacturing wages of 0.6% to 2.2%. This effect lasted at least until 1930.

The Other Great Migration: Southern Whites and the New Right

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2023 138(3), 1577-1647 open access
This article shows how the migration of millions of Southern whites in the twentieth century shaped the cultural and political landscape across the United States. Racially and religiously conservative, Southern white migrants created new electoral possibilities for a broad-based coalition with economic conservatives. With their considerable geographic scope, these migrants hastened partisan realignment and helped catalyze and bolster a New Right movement with national influence over the long run. More than just augmenting the conservative voter base outside the South, they influenced non-Southerners by building evangelical churches, diffusing right-wing media, and mixing through intermarriage and residential integration. Tracking non-Southern households, we show that exposure to Southern white neighbors increased adoption of conservative religious norms. Overall, our findings suggest that this mass migration blurred the North–South cultural divide and reshaped the geography of conservatism in the United States.

The Confederate Diaspora

Review of Economic Studies 2026 open access
Abstract This paper develops a new framework for understanding when and how migrants shape culture, applying it to the Confederate diaspora—a small migrant group that left a large cultural imprint. Southern Whites that migrated after the Civil War played a pivotal role in spreading Confederate symbols and racial norms across the U.S. by the early 20th century. Their far-reaching influence stemmed from two key conditions: (i) an ideological intensity rooted in their experiences of slavery, secession, and military defeat and (ii) access to malleable power structures during westward expansion and post-war reconciliation. These conditions enabled them to transmit Confederate culture to both kin and non-Southern neighbours and to expand their reach by mobilising civil society organisation and leveraging positions of authority. They shaped policies and institutions that helped entrench racial norms and inequalities in labour markets, housing, and the criminal justice system. Our findings provide empirical foundations for understanding how migrants can transform local culture, rather than merely assimilate.