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Monopoly and the Intertemporal Production of a Durable Extractable Resource

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1980 94(1), 99
In extractive industries producing a resource that does not quickly wear out, monopoly power has an important effect on the rate of production, and hence on the pattern of prices, over time. In many cases, a monopoly producer of a durable resource will rationally choose a high initial price, and lower that price over time; this contrasts dramatically with the strategy of a competitive extractive industry, which optimally increases price over time at the industry's discount rate, regardless of the durability of the resource. In the cases we study, it is found that a monopoly producer of a durable resource will be more conservation-minded than will a competitive industry, initially producing at a slower rate in order to keep early-period prices high.

The Theory of Housing and Interest Rates

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1980 15(4), 833
This paper studies the relationship between real interest rates and housing using a microeconomic approach. The primary impact of interest rates is on the demand side. The partial equilibrium, comparative static model of demand behavior presented is based on intertemporal preference maximization subject to a multiperiod income constraint. The model is always in terms of real prices and interest rates and operates in discrete time. Consumer preferences are represente by a smooth utility function which depends on two kinds of goods, housing and other nondurables. This study is couched in a neoclassical framework with all markets assumed perfect unless otherwise specified. With this approach the theory of housing and interest rates becomes part of standard consumer theory, rather than being based on inappropriate present value considerations.

Alternative Techniques for Developing Real Estate Price Indexes

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1980 62(3), 442
T HE rapid rate of increase in the prices of houses in recent years has resulted in renewed interest in trends in residential real estate. A widely quoted study by the Harvard-MIT Joint Center for Urban Studies (Solomon, et al., 1977) showed that in 1976 only 27% of families could afford to buy the median priced new home, a significant change from 1970 when 46% of families were able to make such a purchase. Such rapid changes could result in significant income redistribution effects, and policy proposals have been numerous. To assess these trends and proposals, it is necessary to have accurate methods of developing residential real estate price indexes. Most real estate indexes have been based on the average or median selling price in each year for new or used houses. Yet there may exist substantial differences in the houses on the market at different times, so such indexes contain quality changes as well as pure price changes. Because housing is a highly heterogeneous commodity, the measurement of quality-adjusted price changes has proven difficult. Such measurement is desirable not simply because of the recent significant price changes in the real estate market, but also because economists have found property values to be one of the best sources of information on goods for which markets do not exist. Although in the past cross-sectional studies have generally been used for this purpose, questions remain concerning the timing of the impacts. Comparisons of real estate price indexes can provide insights into the dynamics of such effects. Among the techniques suggested for developing quality-adjusted price indexes, approaches using hedonic regressions and repeat-sale regressions appear to be the most promising. In this paper, alternative local price indexes are developed using modifications of the hedonic and repeat-sale techniques. For the case considered, the two independent techniques provide statistically identical indexes of the real price of housing. The estimated rate of increase in house prices using the hedonic and repeat-sale techniques is substantially lower than the non-quality adjusted rate implied by the change in average selling price.

Inflation and Foreign Exchange Rates Under Production and Monetary Uncertainty

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1980 15(4), 949
Modern contingent pricing theory (CPT) dates its genesis from the pioneering work of Arrow [1] and Debreu [9] in the context of complete markets. Beja [2, 3] demonstrated the application of contingent pricing concepts to incomplete markets. The approach has been applied to the valuation of options (Cox and Ross [7]; Rubinstein [30]) and a variety of other financial instruments (e.g., Ross [28])- Tne fundamental insight of CPT is that in arbitrage-free markets complex securities may always be viewed as additive combinations of simple “state-claims” having positive value which, in effect, pay off one unit if and only if a given state is attained at a given date. Concurrently, the continuoustime viewpoint pioneered by Black and Scholes [4] and Merton [22] has grown in significance. The basic simplification of the continuous-time approach is that relevant valuation quantities may all be expressed in terms of the first two moments, i.e., mean and variance, of the state variable distributions employed. When CPT adopts a continuous-time format, it has been shown (Garman [13]) that a basic differential equation holds for all securities; that differential equation involves, of course, the state-claim values, the distributional parameters of state variable evolution, and the prices and dividends of securities. Alternatively, somewhat stronger assumptions which lead to the existence of a rational consensus investor allow thedifferential equation to be expressed in terms of marginal utilities (Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross [8]). This paper applies the techniques of continuous-time CPT to the foreign exchange market. Since we wish to substantively treat inflationary and productive sources of risk in two countries, four state variables are necessarily involved. In a sense, therefore, this is an ambitious attempt since the mostcomplex continuous-time models to date (e.g.. Brennan and Schwartz [5]), have substantively treated only two state variables. Such complexity is simplified through the use of some compact notation, but not by the use of ad hoc modeling. Indeed, it should be emphasized that the present treatment is a full-equilibrium approach, and that while the compact quality of the notation might be made to incorporate a significant amount of possible additional structure, nothing here is inconsistent with a complete equilibrium.