[The use of analyst forecasts as proxies for investors' earnings expectations is commonplace in empirical research. An implicit assumption behind their use is that they reflect analysts' private information in an unbiased manner. As demonstrated here, this assumption is not necessarily valid. There is shown to be a tendency for analysts to release forecasts closer to prior earnings expectations than is appropriate, given their information. Further, analysts exhibit herding behavior, whereby they release forecasts similar to those previously announced by other analysts, even when this is not justified by their information. These results are shown to have interesting empirical implications.]

[An important element of a firm's disclosure strategy is the timing of its mandatory public announcements. In this article, two aspects of disclosure timing are examined. The first is the intraday timing of earnings announcements. It is demonstrated here that, under reasonable conditions, market prices reflect better the valuation implications of an earnings announcement when it is made during trading hours rather than after the market has closed. This implies that managers should prefer to release earnings with positive (negative) implications for firm value during (after) trading hours. The second issue examined is the sequencing of multiple corporate disclosures. It is shown that if the announcements have positive (negative) implications for firm value, managers should prefer to make them separately (simultaneously), as market prices better reflect the valuation implications of multiple announcements when they are made at different times.]

Managers often release earnings forecasts in advance of actual earnings announcements. It would appear that managers should at best be indifferent to such release given that the actual earnings will be disclosed at a future date. However, if the manager's objective is to maximize his firm's market value and he has control of production decisions, he may be motivated to release an earnings forecast. The reason is that the forecast release gives investors a more favorable assessment of the manager's ability to anticipate economic environment changes and to adjust production plans accordingly. Forecast release can thereby translate into a higher firm market value.

Abstract. Several recent studies have empirically examined the accuracy of security analyst earnings forecasts. Among the objectives of this research is to measure the ability of analysts to gather and process both public and private information. An implicit assumption underlying these studies is that analysts' earnings forecasts fully reflect the information that the analysts possess. However, this may not be true; analysts may not incorporate all of their information into their forecasts. As shown here, analysts may be reluctant to revise their forecasts upon the receipt of new information because of the negative signal such a revision provides concerning the accuracy of their prior information. As a result, the accuracy of analysts' forecasts may underestimate the precision of their information. Résumé. Dans des études récentes, plusieurs chercheurs ont procédé à l'examen empirique de l'exactitude des prévisions de bénefices formulées par les analystes en valeurs mobilières. L'auteur vise entre autres objectifs celui de mesurer la capacité des analystes de recueillir et de traiter à la fois les informations à caractère public et privé. Une hypothèse implicite sous‐jacente à ces études veut que les prévisions de bénéfices des analystes reflètent intégralement l'information que possèdent ces derniers. Cette hypothèse peut cependant être erronée; il se peut que les analystes n'incorporent pas toute l'information dont ils disposent dans leurs prévisions. Comme l'explique l'auteur, les analystes peuvent être réticents à réviser leurs prévisions lorsqu'ils reçoivent de l'information nouvelle en raison de l'image négative que projetterait ce genre de révision relativement à l'exactitude de leur information antérieure. Par conséquent, l'exactitude des prévisions des analystes pourrait sous‐estimer la précision de leur information.

When a firm's management needs to raise external capital in order to finance an investment project, it is likely to have better information about the project's future return than do potential investors. In such a case, as has been shown in the literature, management may be able to signal its information through the use of certain financial variables. However, the possibility that management may be able to use the level of investment in the project itself to signal their information has not been considered. The purpose of this paper is to examine this possibility. It is shown here that the level of capital investment may be able to perfectly reveal management's information, with a higher input level signalling more favorable information. It is further demonstrated that even in this equilibrium, financial variables still play an important role. Among other results, it is shown, in contrast to a conclusion of a study by Leland and Pyle, that in this setting the number of shares held by management may be negatively correlated with the favorableness of their information.

The use of analyst forecasts as proxies for investors' earnings expectations is commonplace in empirical research. An implicit assumption behind their use is that they reflect analysts' private information in an unbiased manner. As demonstrated here, this assumption is not necessarily valid. There is shown to be a tendency for analysts to release forecasts closer to prior earnings expectations than is appropriate, given their information. Further, analysts exhibit herding behavior, whereby they release forecasts similar to those previously announced by other analysts, even when this is not justified by their information. These results are shown to have interesting empirical implications. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

ABSTRACT In a recent article, Black [1] introduces a type of trading that he terms noise trading. He asserts that noise trading, which he defines as trading on noise as if it were information, must be a significant factor in securities markets. However, he does not provide an explanation of why any investors would rationally want to engage in noise trading. The goal of this paper is to provide such an explanation for one type of investor, managers of investment funds. As shown here, the incentive for a manager to engage in noise trading arises because of the positive signal that the level of the manager's trading provides about his or her ability to collect private information concerning current and potential investments. If the manager's compensation is directly related to investors' perceptions of his or her ability, the manager will then trade more frequently than is justified on the basis of his or her private information. In addition to providing this explanation for noise trading, the results of this analysis may also be useful for further empirical exploration of the relation between investment fund portfolio turnover and subsequent performance.

In a recent article, Black 1 introduces a type of trading that he terms noise trading. He asserts that noise trading, which he defines as trading on noise as if it were information, must be a significant factor in securities markets. However, he does not provide an explanation of why any investors would rationally want to engage in noise trading. The goal of this paper is to provide such an explanation for one type of investor, managers of investment funds. As shown here, the incentive for a manager to engage in noise trading arises because of the positive signal that the level of the manager's trading provides about his or her ability to collect private information concerning current and potential investments. If the manager's compensation is directly related to investors' perceptions of his or her ability, the manager will then trade more frequently than is justified on the basis of his or her private information. In addition to providing this explanation for noise trading, the results of this analysis may also be useful for further empirical exploration of the relation between investment fund portfolio turnover and subsequent performance.