The Review of Asset Pricing Studies20188(2), 337-374open access
A simple general equilibrium production economy matches moments of the value premium and equity premium. Value firms have low productivity, but will eventually produce high cash flows. The present value of these temporally distant cash flows is especially sensitive to equity premium movements. The value premium is the reward for bearing this sensitivity. Capital adjustment costs are important. Without these costs, value firms would disinvest heavily, leading to high cash flows today, low cash-flow growth going forward, and little exposure to discount rate shocks. Empirical evidence verifies that value firms have higher cash-flow growth and supports other predictions.
Acquirers facing strong union power tend to acquire target firms with cash rather than equity or a mix of cash and equity. A one standard deviation increase in the union power faced by the acquirer increases the odds of choosing cash payment by a factor ranging from 1.26 to 1.57. The effect is stronger when: the acquiring firm is located in states without the right-to-work laws; the interests of managers are more aligned with shareholders in acquiring firms; and acquiring firms’ asset specificity is high. When union power is strong, acquirers making cash payment are associated with a significantly positive announcement return. In addition, they are less likely to experience labor strikes or declines in operating performance, and more likely to obtain wage concessions in collective bargaining in the post-acquisition period than acquirers using other methods of payment. These findings suggest that cash payment allows acquirers to reduce excess liquidity and strengthen their bargaining power with unions.
In the unconditional moment restriction model of Hansen (), specification tests and more efficient estimators are both available whenever the number of moment restrictions exceeds the number of parameters of interest. We show that a similar relationship between potential refutability of a model and existence of more efficient estimators is present in much broader settings. Specifically, a condition we name local overidentification is shown to be equivalent to both the existence of specification tests with nontrivial local power and the existence of more efficient estimators of some “smooth” parameters in general semi/nonparametric models. Under our notion of local overidentification, various locally nontrivial specification tests such as Hausman tests, incremental Sargan tests (or optimally weighted quasi likelihood ratio tests) naturally extend to general semi/nonparametric settings. We further obtain simple characterizations of local overidentification for general models of nonparametric conditional moment restrictions with possibly different conditioning sets. The results are applied to determining when semi/nonparametric models with endogeneity are locally testable, and when nonparametric plug‐in and semiparametric two‐step GMM estimators are semiparametrically efficient. Examples of empirically relevant semi/nonparametric structural models are presented.
Journal of Financial Intermediation201836, 101-117
Using U.S. banking data between 1993 and 2014, this paper investigates the relationship between CEO optimism and bank liquidity creation. It finds that banks with optimistic CEOs create more liquidity over the entire sample period. In addition, the positive effect of CEO optimism on liquidity creation became stronger during the subprime crisis of 2007‒2009, and this stronger effect was mainly driven by banks with high capital ratios and large banks. These results imply that CEO optimism is likely to encourage banks to create liquidity, especially during banking crises. The results presented in this paper hold when subjected to various robustness checks.
We investigate how changes in the availability of bank credit influence how public firms manage their working capital, which is essential to their operations. In doing so, we provide an enhanced understanding of what significantly influences corporate working capital management. We find that changes in the availability of bank credit significantly influence a number of aspects of a firm's working capital policies, and these effects often differ across firms that are more or less dependent on bank financing. Interestingly, our evidence points to the importance of the changing mix of U.S. companies for working capital practices.
We show that queue rationing under price controls is one driver of high-frequency trading. Uniform tick sizes constrain price competition and create rents for liquidity provision, particularly for securities with lower prices. The time priority rule allocates rents to high-frequency traders (HFTs) because of their speed advantage. An increase in relative tick size, defined as uniform tick sizes divided by security prices, increases the fraction of liquidity provided by HFTs but harms liquidity. We find that the message-to-trade ratio is a poor cross-sectional proxy for HFTs’ liquidity provision: stocks with more liquidity provided by HFTs have lower message-to-trade ratios. Received September 15, 2015; editorial decision October 7, 2017 by Editor Robin Greenwood.
We develop a structural credit model to examine how interactions between default and liquidity affect corporate bond pricing. The model features debt rollover and bond-price-dependent holding costs. Over the business cycle and in the cross-section, the model matches average default rates and credit spreads in the data, and captures variations in bid-ask and bond-CDS spreads. A structural decomposition reveals that default-liquidity interactions can account for 10%–24% of the level of credit spreads and 16%–46% of the changes in spreads over the business cycle. Further, liquidity-related corporate bond financing costs amount to 6% of the total issuance amount from 1996 to 2015.
In contrast to past studies that assume service flow of durable goods consumption to be a constant fraction of the stock, we study a consumption-based asset pricing model featuring time-varying utilization of durable goods. We propose an innovative measure of the unobserved usage of durable goods from carbon dioxide emissions. We find that the time-varying utilization of durable goods is a valid pricing factor. Our model exhibits a stronger cross-sectional pricing power than several consumption-based capital asset pricing models, including Yogo’s (2006) durable goods model. Finally, our model mitigates the joint risk premium and implied risk-free rate puzzle.
The Review of Asset Pricing Studies20188(1), 153-182
We evaluate the performance of various methods for estimating factor returns in an approximate factor model. Differences across estimators are most pronounced when there is cross-sectional heteroscedasticity or when cross-sectional sample sizes, n, have fewer than 4,000 assets. Estimators incorporating either cross-sectional or time-series heteroscedasticity outperform the other estimators when those types of heteroscedasticity are present. The differences are most pronounced when the cross-sectional sample is small. Received December 2, 2015; editorial decision May 16, 2017 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.
We examine how the threat of turnover affects bank CEOs' risk-taking behavior. Using a sample of 212 U.S. banks from 1995 to 2010, in contrast with prior studies focusing on non-banking firms, we find a non-monotonic relationship between CEO turnover threat and CEO risk-taking behavior in the banking industry. Bank CEOs increase their risk-taking when the perceived turnover threat is moderate but reduce risk-taking when turnover threat is more imminent. This effect tends to concentrate on banks with a majority of independent directors.