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Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation

American Economic Review 2008 98(3), 737-768
The intertemporal elasticity of investment for long-lived capital goods is nearly infinite. Consequently, investment prices should fully reflect temporary tax subsidies, regardless of the investment supply elasticity. Since prices move one-for-one with the subsidy, elasticities can be inferred from quantities alone. This paper uses a recent tax policy—bonus depreciation—to estimate the investment supply elasticity. Investment in qualified capital increased sharply. The estimated elasticity is high—between 6 and 14. There is no evidence that market prices reacted to the subsidy, suggesting that adjustment costs are internal, or that measurement error masks the price changes. (JEL G31, H32)

Quantifying the Benefits of Labour Mobility in a Currency Union

Review of Economic Studies 2026 93(2), 1038-1076
Abstract Unemployment differentials are greater between countries in the euro area than between U.S. states. In both regions, net migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in the euro area compared to the U.S. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration to quantify Mundell’s hypothesis that labour mobility could substitute for independent monetary policy in a currency union. While not as effective as independent monetary policy, increased labour mobility reduces business cycle fluctuations for most countries in the euro area. However, Mundell’s conjecture does not hold uniformly. For countries that primarily face demand shocks, labour mobility stabilizes inflation and unemployment and improves welfare. If supply shocks are dominant however, labour mobility increases the cost of being in a currency union by magnifying inflation volatility.

Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity

American Economic Review 2006 96(5), 1835-1849
This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze and quantify the aggregate effects of the timing of tax rate changes enacted in 2001 (which called for successive rate reductions through 2006) and 2003 (which made immediate tax rate cuts scheduled for 2004 and 2006). The phased-in nature contributed to the slow recovery from the 2001 recession, while the elimination of the phase-in helped explain the increase in economic activity in 2003. The simulations suggest while the tax policy was a drag on the economy in 2001 and 2002, it increased economic growth in 2003, once phase-ins were eliminated.

An sS Model with Adverse Selection

Journal of Political Economy 2004 112(3), 581-614
We present a model of the market for a used durable in which agents face fixed costs of adjustment, the magnitude of which depends on the degree of adverse selection in the secondary market. We find that, unlike typical models, the sS bands in our model contract as the variance of the shock increases. We also analyze a dynamic version of the model in which agents are allowed to make decisions that are conditional on the age of the durable. We find that, as the durable ages, the lemons problem tends to decline in importance, and the sS bands contract.

Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods

American Economic Review 2007 97(3), 984-998
The inclusion of a durable goods sector in sticky-price models has strong and unexpected implications. Even if most prices are flexible, a small durable goods sector with sticky prices may be sufficient to make aggregate output react to monetary policy as though most prices were sticky. In contrast, flexibly priced durables with sufficiently long service lives can undo the implications of standard sticky price models. In a limiting case, flexibly priced durables cause monetary policy to have no effect on aggregate output. Our analysis suggests that durable goods prices are the most relevant data for calibrating price rigidity. (JEL E21, E23, E31, E52)